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Trump And Erdogan Talk, But There’s Disagreement Over What Was Said

January 26, 2018 by  
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Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan speaks in Ankara during the funeral prayers for Sergeant Musa Ozalkan, the first Turkish soldier to be killed in Turkey’s cross-border “Operation Olive Branch” in northern Syria, on Tuesday.

Kayhan Ozer/AP


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Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan speaks in Ankara during the funeral prayers for Sergeant Musa Ozalkan, the first Turkish soldier to be killed in Turkey’s cross-border “Operation Olive Branch” in northern Syria, on Tuesday.

Kayhan Ozer/AP

President Trump, speaking to Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan Wednesday, urged Ankara to scale back its military operations in neighboring Syria following an offensive launched by Turkish forces against U.S.-backed Kurdish insurgents in Syria’s Afrin region.

At least that is how the conversation about the Turkish operation, known as “Operation Olive Branch,” is being reported by the White House.

Separately, though, both Reuters and Al-Jazeera quote an unnamed Turkish source as giving a substantially different account of the conversation.

A readout from the White House Wednesday says Trump “relayed concerns that escalating violence in Afrin, Syria, risks undercutting our shared goals in Syria,” adding that the president “urged Turkey to deescalate, limit its military actions, and avoid civilian casualties and increases to displaced persons and refugees. He urged Turkey to exercise caution and to avoid any actions that might risk conflict between Turkish and American forces.”

Reuters and Al-Jazeera report from identical statements indicating that the White House version of the call is not accurate.

“President Trump did not share any ‘concerns about escalating violence’ with regard to the ongoing military operation in Afrin,” the source said, according to the news agencies.

“The two leaders’ discussion of Operation Olive Branch was limited to an exchange of views,” the source said.

The White House statement also said: “President Trump also expressed concern about destructive and false rhetoric coming from Turkey, and about United States citizens and local employees detained under the prolonged State of Emergency in Turkey.”

However, Al-Jazeera reports:

“[The] Turkish official denied there was any mention of the state of emergency or the phrase ‘destructive and false rhetoric coming from Turkey.’

” ‘[Trump] mentioned that open criticism of the United States raised concerns in Washington,’ according to the source.”

Turkish military tanks are prepared for deployment as part of the “Operation Olive Branch” to Syrian border in Hatay, Turkey, on Thursday.

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Turkish military tanks are prepared for deployment as part of the “Operation Olive Branch” to Syrian border in Hatay, Turkey, on Thursday.

Anadolu Agency/Getty Images

NPR’s Peter Kenyon, speaking with Morning Edition from Istanbul, observes that “Ankara’s version of this exact same call is remarkably different, basically accusing the U.S. of misstating the content of what was said.”

He says, “It’s the latest in a series of disagreements. It’s just the latest sign that anti-American sentiment here is running stronger than it has in years. Meanwhile, you’ve got some conservatives in the U.S. questioning whether Turkey even belongs in NATO anymore.”

Reporting earlier this week, Peter said Turkey’s offensive, which pits Turkey against U.S.-backed Kurds fighting ISIS, has “alarmed several countries and led to an emergency session of the United Nations Security Council.”

“The fighting has thrown a spotlight on the confusing and at times conflicting alliances and goals in the U.S.-led anti-ISIS coalition,” Peter says.

On Tuesday, Turkey said it had killed 260 Syrian Kurdish fighters four days into its offensive. Washington has expressed concern over the hundreds of thousands of civilians who could be caught in the crossfire.

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Seoul worried US may launch limited strike, or ‘preventive’ action against North Korea

January 25, 2018 by  
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Kim Jong Un

Despite peace gestures tied to next month’s Pyeongchang Winter Olympics, officials in South Korea are worried the U.S. may be preparing for military action against North Korea.

The concern is that even a limited strike, or a so-called “preventive attack” being pushed by some hawks in the Trump administration, could spark a major response from the North Koreans, according to experts. And, there’s no guarantee a military strike by the U.S. won’t result in a wider conflict or war on the Korean Peninsula.

“Seoul has very strong concerns about the potential for a U.S. ‘preventive attack’ on North Korea,” said Bruce Klingner, former chief of the CIA Korea division and now senior research fellow for Northeast Asia at the Washington-based conservative think Heritage Foundation.

Adding to the anxiety is “nuclear button” rhetoric this month from North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and President Donald Trump as well as news reports that the White House is considering a possible pre-emptive “bloody nose” strike on North Korean missile facilities.

“Whatever we want to call it, war footing or not, a strike on North Korea has always been one of the options that various U.S. administrations have had in their toolbox,” said Benjamin Silberstein, associate scholar at the Philadelphia-based Foreign Policy Research Institute.

Possible catalysts for the limited strike against North Korea could include the regime launching another intercontinental ballistic missile test or an atmospheric hydrogen bomb test, which it threatened to do last year.

Experts say the springtime historically has been an active period of missile testing by Pyongyang, when the regime complains about massive U.S.-South Korean joint military exercises.

The upcoming war games known as Foal Eagle and Key Resolve are set to get underway after the Olympics and involve American and South Korean ships, tanks and aircraft as well as live-fire exercises and more than 230,000 combined troops. The North Koreans view the war drills as provocative because they contain simulated elements sometimes described as “decapitation strikes” by special forces that target the regime’s leadership.

Some proponents of the Trump administration’s limited-strike option contend that the North Koreans might actually hold back from any military response out of fear that the risks of doing so are too great because it could produce a massive response from Washington and perhaps be fatal to the Kim regime.Yet others disagree, saying the North Korea leader would look bad if he didn’t respond since the regime has blamed the U.S. for crippling international sanctions and its other problems. They also contend that a faction of the military could act on its own if Kim failed to order a military response.

“Kim would have no choice but to respond back or he’d face the possibility of a coup,” said Harry Kazianis, director of defense studies at the Center for the National Interest, a U.S. think tank. “And maybe even respond more ferociously than we attack him.”

Any retaliation could potentially pose a threat to the greater Seoul area, where about half of the South Korean population lives. North Koreans are known to have thousands of hardened artillery sites, including some dug into mountains, along the Korean DMZ and within range of Seoul.

Klingner, the former CIA official, just returned from a trip to South Korea where he heard firsthand the concerns of senior officials. He said the unanimous view is that even a limited strike would certainly trigger a response from the North Koreans.

“Some are suggesting that the U.S. is thinking of hitting two or three targets, and that North Korea would likely respond proportionately,” Klingner said. “Not the all-out artillery barrage on Seoul.”

Still, he said there are scenarios where a limited strike by Washington could result in a larger response by the North Korean military.

Another wildcard is what China would do if the U.S. were to conduct a strike against North Korea. An editorial last year in China’s semi-official Global Times newspaper suggested Beijing might help North Korea if Washington launched a pre-emptive attack.

China was noticeably absent last week when diplomats from 20 countries met in Vancouver, British Columbia, to discuss the North Korean nuclear threat and international sanctions.

Secretary of State Rex Tillerson was asked at the meeting whether there might soon be military conflict with Pyongyang and responded: “I think we all need to be very sober and clear-eyed about the current situation. We have to recognize that the threat is growing. And if North Korea does not choose the path of engagement, of discussion, negotiations, then they themselves will trigger an option.”

Some are critical of the Trump administration for giving mixed messages on North Korea and for what some call “loose talk” on military options. For example, Trump last year appeared to undercut diplomatic efforts by Tillerson by tweeting, “Save your energy Rex, we’ll do what has to be done!”

“Mixed messages from the United States toward North Korea has plagued the Trump administration efforts to reduce the threat posed by the North’s nuclear program from Day One,” said Kelsey Davenport, director for nonproliferation policy at the Arms Control Association, a nonpartisan disarmament group based in Washington.

According to Davenport, the “uptick in loose talk” about a possible “preventive strike” risks hurting the momentum created by the inter-Korean talks over the Olympics and to advance diplomatic efforts and the denuclearization goal. Also, she said, “loose talk of ‘preventative war’ also is dangerous because it increases the likelihood of miscalculation or inadvertent escalation in the region.”

Regardless, many don’t see the North Korean leader giving up his nuclear weapons anytime soon. They say the regime is well aware of what happened with Libya’s Moammar Gadhafi when he gave up his nuclear weapon ambitions after facing Western pressure.

“They’ve been very clear that they have no intention … to give up 1 inch on their nuclear weapons development,” said Silberstein. “That’s still where we’re at, regardless of how many North Korean athletes come to Pyeongchang.”

Jeffrey Daniela