Trump’s Threat of War With North Korea May Sound Scarier Than It Is
August 10, 2017 by admin
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North Korean leaders correctly assessed those threats as empty, never sending the countries careening into an unintended war. And the threats didn’t seem to affect American credibility. It’s not clear that Mr. Trump, by upgrading the adjectives in his own threats, changes much.
Is Trump Deploying the ‘Madman Theory’ With North Korea?
When President Trump threatened North Korea with “fire and fury,” he could have been employing a strategy used by Richard M. Nixon.
By SHANE O’NEILL and MARK SCHEFFLER on Publish Date August 9, 2017.
Photo by Doug Mills/The New York Times.
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Americans might have strong views about what makes Mr. Trump different from his predecessors. But in Pyongyang, where the nuances of American politics and personalities are less familiar, those distinctions are likely less front-of-mind.
Words matter in international relations, but actions matter far more.
Current American action, or lack thereof, sends a message of calm and caution, rather than “fire and fury.”
States have a hard time reading one another’s internal politics, so they tend to rely heavily on reading one another’s actions for clues as to their intentions. And American action toward North Korea remains unchanged. American troops in nearby Guam and Japan are still in their barracks. Naval warships are holding a respectful distance.
These are the sorts of signals, not a leader’s offhand comments, that matter most in international relations. Washington is sending a clear, consistent message to Pyongyang that the United States still wants to avoid escalation.
Though North Korea has returned Mr. Trump’s threat with its own against Guam, the country’s actions suggest it is only for show.
No one has an incentive to escalate, and all sides understand this.
Wars can happen when states conclude, rightly or wrongly, that the other side might see conflict is in its interests. This can lead them to prepare for war, making it likelier that an accident or miscalculation could send them stumbling into one. But that is not the case now.
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North Korea’s interests are to avoid a conflict it would likely lose. The United States’ interests are to avoid a conflict that would risk a nuclear attack against an American city. That clarity is stabilizing.
Despite longstanding speculation about Mr. Kim’s mental fitness, scholars agree he has repeatedly proven himself rational and focused on his government’s survival. His country’s weapons programs are designed to deter a war, not start one. And while Mr. Trump’s comment hint at an appetite for war, the institutions that carry out American foreign policy — particularly the military — have behaved conservatively, giving the world ample reason to dismiss his statement.
States tend to ignore unclear, isolated signals like Mr. Trump’s.
Some analysts worry that Mr. Trump could inject more uncertainty into an already tense situation.
The president’s most bellicose statements appear to contradict his own administration’s more measured lines on North Korea. But studies on foreign policy messaging suggest that Pyongyang will hear Mr. Trump’s threats as empty.
States, according to research by Robert Jervis, a Columbia University political scientist, are biased toward assuming other states’ behavior will remain consistent. Overcoming that bias and forcing a state like North Korea to change its assessment of American intentions would require more than a few words.
States also tend to disregard any signal they perceive as unclear or ambiguous. If Americans can’t agree on what Mr. Trump meant, you can bet the analysts in Pyongyang are no more certain.
Any risk to American credibility or of trapping Mr. Trump in a dangerous position is easy to overstate.
Extensive research suggests that empty threats neither damage a state’s global credibility nor create pressures forcing it to follow through on those threats. Though questions of credibility are still debated by political scientists, history is littered with examples of false threats conveniently ignored.
During the Cold War, the Soviet Premier Nikita Khrushchev repeatedly threatened to seize West Berlin. But Soviet actions betrayed his threats as empty, allowing Washington and Moscow to quietly sidestep the risk of war in Germany. He never felt politically forced to invade. And few doubted Soviet credibility a few months later when Moscow tried to install nuclear weapons in Cuba — an action that spoke louder and more clearly than any of Khrushchev’s words.
That is the real lesson of the Cuban missile crisis.
If Mr. Trump moves thousands of troops from Guam to South Korea, you can worry. That would send a clear and destabilizing signal of American intentions against North Korea. But one over-the-top quote is not worth losing sleep over.
“If you want my advice, get off Twitter and go to dinner,” Jeffrey Lewis, an expert on North Korea’s nuclear program, wrote on Twitter as social media panic grew. “The nuclear war isn’t tonight.”
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Floyd Mayweather: I’ve ‘lost a step’; Conor McGregor has edge on paper
August 9, 2017 by admin
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Floyd Mayweather spent much of his promotional tour last month mocking Conor McGregor‘s skills and confidently predicting he would dominate their Aug. 26 boxing match, but he struck a more deferential tone Tuesday, acknowledging that he has “lost a step” and that McGregor, at least on paper, has the edge over him.
In an interview with ESPN’s Stephen A. Smith, Mayweather, 40, pointed to McGregor’s advantages in size and age as reasons why the UFC fighter poses a legitimate challenge.
“He’s a lot younger. When you look at myself and Conor McGregor on paper, he’s taller, has a longer reach, he’s a bigger man from top to bottom. He’s a lot younger, so youth is on his side,” Mayweather said of McGregor, who is 29. “And I’ve been off a couple of years. And I’m in my 40s. So, if you look at everything on paper, it leans toward Conor McGregor.”
Mayweather, the former pound-for-pound boxing king and five-division world champion, is coming out of retirement for his clash with McGregor, a bout for which he is widely considered a heavy favorite.
He has not fought since his one-sided unanimous decision over Andre Berto in September 2015, which improved his record to 49-0. McGregor, the UFC lightweight champion, will be making his professional boxing debut against Mayweather.
Asked by Smith why he wasn’t brashly proclaiming McGregor has no chance in their fight, Mayweather said simply, “I’m older.
“I’m not the same fighter I was two years ago. I’m not the same fighter I was five years ago. I lost a step,” he said. “A fighter like Andre Berto isn’t even supposed to go the distance with Floyd Mayweather, but remember, I was 38. It’s obvious I’m slipping a little bit to even let a fighter like that go the distance with me.
“I’m not what I used to be.”
One major difference Mayweather pointed to as an older fighter was his knockout power — or lack thereof. His last knockout came in 2011 against Victor Ortiz, and his past seven fights have gone the distance.
“I used to have a 90 percent knockout ratio,” Mayweather said of his punching power early in his career. “It’s obvious I slipped somewhere. Something has taken a toll on my career.”
Mayweather, however, emphasized that he believes an “older” Mayweather still reigns supreme against McGregor, telling Smith, “I didn’t say I couldn’t fight. I just said I’m not the same Floyd Mayweather I once was.”
As for his streak of fights without a knockout, Mayweather, known for his defensive wizardry in the ring, said he believes he owes it to boxing fans to be more aggressive and take the fight to McGregor. Mayweather specifically referred to his decision victory over Manny Pacquiao in their May 2015 megafight, which didn’t have the action or drama that many hoped for.
“This can’t be a defensive fight. I have to go to him,” Mayweather said of McGregor. “I owe the public because of the Pacquiao fight. They weren’t pleased with that. They’re gonna be pleased with this fight here.”