Harvey rapidly intensified Thursday morning in the central Gulf of Mexico, and officially became a hurricane at 1 p.m. eastern. The extremely dangerous storm is predicted to strengthen further and plow into southeast Texas Friday as the first major hurricane, rated Category 3 or higher (on the 1-5 Saffir-Simpson intensity scale), to strike U.S. soils in 12 years.

An incredible amount of rain, exceeding 20 inches in some areas, is likely as the storm is predicted to stall and unload torrential downpours for four to six straight days.

“Trying not to be dramatic, but I fear epic flood catastrophe,” tweeted Marshall Shepherd, a former president of the American Meteorological Society.

GFS model storm projection Friday night through Wednesday night. (PivotalWeather.com)

Not only are the rain and flooding concerns huge, but the storm also has the potential to generate destructive winds and a devastating storm surge — or raise the water above normally dry land at the coast.

Because it is positioned over extremely warm waters and strengthening so fast, the National Hurricane Center predicts the storm, which was a mere tropical depression on Wednesday, to make landfall as a Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds Friday night.

“Harvey has intensified quickly this morning, and is now forecast to be a major hurricane at landfall, bringing life-threatening storm surge, rainfall, and wind hazards to portions of the Texas coast,” the Hurricane Center said in its 11 a.m. discussion.

On Wednesday, Texas Gov. Greg Abbott declared a state of emergency in anticipation of the storm in 30 counties. Evacuation orders may come for some coastal areas Thursday.

At 1 p.m., Hurricane Harvey had 80 mph peak winds and was centered about 340 miles south-southeast of Corpus Christi. It is tracking toward the north-northwest at 10 mph and is expected to become a hurricane shortly.

Hurricane, storm surge and flood warnings plastered coastal and inland portions of east Texas on Thursday morning, and tropical-storm-force winds are forecast to reach the Texas coastline Friday morning.

(National Hurricane Center)

The general computer model consensus is that Harvey will make landfall Friday night between Port Mansfield and San Luis Pass, Tex., the zone under a hurricane warning. The biggest population center in this area is Corpus Christi — which may end up very close to the landfall location.

(National Hurricane Center)

The rain and wind from the storm could have profound effects on oil refineries near its path.

Texas has not been hit by a hurricane since 2008, when Ike crashed ashore near Galveston. Harvey could be a storm Texans remember for many years to come.

The rain

The rain forecasts are truly ominous. “Somebody is going to get a rainstorm to tell their grandkids about,” said Bill Read, a former director of the National Hurricane Center.

Areas from the Texas-Louisiana border up to Corpus Christi may see 12 to 20 inches of rain, with some locations seeing well over two feet. A few models forecast up to four feet of rain in isolated locations, so the potential exists for a flood event of historic proportions. But it is impossible to pinpoint exactly where the heaviest rain will fall.

Seven-day cumulative rainfall forecast. (NOAA/WPC)

Houston, the nation’s fourth-largest city, could receive 10 to 20 inches of rain from the storm, depending on exactly where it tracks — with the heaviest moving in Saturday or Sunday and then continuing into early next week. Matt Lanza, a meteorologist based in Houston, said 20 inches would be “devastating” for the city, depending where it fell. A worst-case scenario, Lanza said, would be for this amount of rain to fall just northwest of downtown as “all that water has to push through the Bayou networks across the city into Galveston Bay.”

GFS model rainfall forecast through Thursday morning. (PivotalWeather.com)

Especially late this weekend and into early next, areas of western and southern Louisiana could also be hard hit with double digit rainfall totals.

Predicted power outages from UMICH/OHIOState/TEXASAM #Harvey pic.twitter.com/SUWMEjtyzq

— John Honoré (@JohnHonore) August 24, 2017

Uncertainties

The storm’s exact intensity is unfortunately a wild card at this point. Rapid intensification, which has begun, is a poorly understood and poorly modeled process. But, with absolutely ideal environmental conditions, there is reasonable possibility that Harvey becomes a major hurricane by landfall Friday. The last major hurricane to make landfall on the United States was Wilma in October 2005.

In addition to the uncertainty in the winds speeds, which has implications for how big the storm surge is, the other important uncertainties are the storm’s motion and duration, which have significant implications for where the heaviest rain falls and how long it lasts.

Right now, it is important for Texans in the path of this storm to understand — irrespective of where the storm makes landfall — Harvey’s footprint will be enormous because of its long duration. Preparations should begin immediately.

President Trump on Thursday sought to pin blame on his party’s congressional leaders for what the president predicts will be “a mess” to raise the federal governments debt limit.

In a pair of morning tweets, Trump said he asked Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) and House Speaker Paul D. Ryan (R-Wis.) to include a debt ceiling increase in a recent veterans bill.

Trump tweeted: “I requested that Mitch M Paul R tie the Debt Ceiling legislation into the popular V.A. Bill (which just passed) for easy approval. They … didn’t do it so now we have a big deal with Dems holding them up (as usual) on Debt Ceiling approval. Could have been so easy — now a mess!”

I requested that Mitch M Paul R tie the Debt Ceiling legislation into the popular V.A. Bill (which just passed) for easy approval. They…

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) August 24, 2017

…didn’t do it so now we have a big deal with Dems holding them up (as usual) on Debt Ceiling approval. Could have been so easy-now a mess!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) August 24, 2017

The Trump administration has warned that Congress must raise the debt limit before the end of September to avert a fiscal crisis. Next month could produce legislative brinkmanship because the debt impasse coincides with the deadline to pass a new government spending bill.

[McConnell says there is ‘zero chance’ Congress will fail to raise debt ceiling]

On Tuesday, Trump threatened to shut down the government if the bill does not include funding to construct a wall at the U.S.-Mexico border, one of the president’s signature campaign promises.

President Trump, flanked by Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, left, and House Speaker Paul D. Ryan, speaks during a meeting with House and Senate leadership on June 6. (Photo by Jabin Botsford/The Washington Post)

Trump’s Thursday tweets escalate a feud with fellow Republicans on Capitol Hill. Trump’s relationship with McConnell in particular has deteriorated in recent weeks, with the president blaming his party’s senators for failing to pass health-care legislation this summer.

Following his debt limit missives, Trump sent another tweet about his relationship with McConnell. The New York Times reported this week that Trump complained in an angry phone call with the Senate leader about his refusal to protect the president from investigations of Russian interference in the 2016 election.

But Trump insisted in his tweet that he was only upset with McConnell over health care: “The only problem I have with Mitch McConnell is that, after hearing Repeal Replace for 7 years, he failed!That should NEVER have happened!”

The only problem I have with Mitch McConnell is that, after hearing Repeal Replace for 7 years, he failed!That should NEVER have happened!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) August 24, 2017

President Barack Obama and Congress agreed in 2015 to suspend the debt ceiling until March 2017, and the Treasury Department has used emergency measures to delay a default. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin has said he will run out of options on Sept. 29, meaning that the Treasury Department could miss a payment if Congress doesn’t raise the debt ceiling in time. Mnuchin on Monday appeared in Kentucky with McConnell, and they both assured voters that the debt ceiling would be raised. But neither of them said how they would pull it off.

[Steven Mnuchin, Trump’s treasury secretary, is hurtling toward his first fiasco]

The government spends more money than it brings in through revenue, and it borrows money to cover the difference by issuing debt. The gap between revenue and spending — known as the deficit — is expected to total more than $800 billion for the year that ends Sept. 30, a phenomenon that has been worsened because some companies and others are delaying payments in anticipation of big tax cuts.

But Treasury can only borrow money up to a limit set by Congress, and this limit is known as the debt ceiling. Failing to raise the debt ceiling could force the government to fall behind or delay some of its payments, an action that could lead to a spike in interest rates, a stock market crash, and a global recession, economists have predicted.

One reason Treasury officials are worried about the late September deadline is because they have a payment scheduled for military pensions that would exceed $70 billion. As of late last week, Treasury had only $84 billion in its cash reserves. That figures rises and falls based on daily tax collection and spending requirements, but it has drawn down steadily for months. When Trump was sworn into office, Treasury had more than $350 billion in cash reserves.

Traditionally, top political figures are coached to project calm about the debt ceiling for fear of spooking investors. Trump’s alarmist warning on Thursday could lead to a new concern because Mnuchin has tried to alleviate fears. Neither Mnuchin nor Trump has had to deal with the debt ceiling before, and Trump — before he was sworn in as president — ridiculed Republicans for raising the debt ceiling.

The Trump administration has struggled to deal with the debt ceiling issue for months. Mnuchin has long called for a “clean” debt ceiling increase, which means he wants Congress to pass it with no strings attached. But White House Office of Management and Budget Director Mick Mulvaney said an increase in the debt ceiling should be tied to spending or other budget cuts, an assertion that emboldened House conservatives to drive a hard bargain in negotiations. Mulvaney eventually backed off his position, but for many on Capitol Hill it was too late. They saw a divided White House with little leverage or focus on the issue, and time began running short.

Republicans typically resist raising the debt ceiling, and GOP leaders were expecting to rely on Democrats to supply the votes to avoid a financial panic. But Republicans have not seriously opened negotiations with Democrats on the measure and they don’t have much time in September to cut a deal.

Even though the White House and Congress have failed for months to spell out how they would raise the debt ceiling, markets had mostly shrugged it off, convinced that lawmakers would eventually reach an agreement. But that could change if investors become worried that the government risks falling behind on payments or if ratings agencies will downgrade the status of U.S. debt based on the drama.