President Trump has set his presidency on an unambiguous course for which there could be no reversal. He has chosen to be a divider, not a uniter, no matter how many words to the contrary he reads off a teleprompter or from a prepared script. That’s one obvious message from Friday’s decision to issue a pardon for controversial former Arizona sheriff Joe Arpaio.
Trump has been a divisive force from the very start of his campaign for president, a proud disrupter of the political status quo. His swashbuckling contempt for political correctness and the rules of the game endeared him to millions of Americans who were fed up with Washington, with career politicians, with liberal elites and with the mainstream media. The more he is under fire — as he is now — the more he returns to that strategy.
There is little doubt that his decision to seize on the issue of immigration, particularly illegal immigration, helped fuel his successful run to the White House. It’s an issue that resonates far beyond the nation’s southern border.
Accidentally or intentionally, Trump tapped into fear and anger over immigration that existed in many parts of the country, including Midwestern states where electoral votes gave him the presidency.
His willingness to use issues of culture and identity to rally supporters, even as his words and actions repelled critics, was a strategic success. There are other reasons he won the election, but immigration is a central factor.
Illegal immigration long has been a divisive issue in American politics. Securing the border, fulfilling the needs of many businesses for migrant workers and deciding how to justly treat the millions of undocumented immigrants already in the country — some have been here for decades and are rooted in their communities — has defied political solution. Politicians in both parties have tried and failed for years to find middle ground and thereby tamp down the conflicts that have arisen.
Trump’s views have not been in doubt. As a candidate, he condemned Mexican immigrants as rapists and criminals. He called for a ban on Muslim immigration. He attacked a federal judge overseeing a suit against Trump University, claiming the judge could not be impartial because he was of Mexican heritage.
His policies in office have brought a sharp change from those of the Obama administration. From his entry ban aimed at several Muslim-majority countries to raids that have shaken immigrant communities, Trump has had a demonstrable impact.
It is a promise he made that he is keeping, even though he has yet to get Congress to fund the border wall that was a rallying cry during his campaign. The Trump administration is now weighing whether to end the Obama administration’s policy designed to protect children from deportation — known informally as “Dreamers” — who were brought to the country illegally, the program known as Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA).
In pardoning Arpaio, the president has again linked himself to the most extreme elements of the immigration debate, inflaming an already highly volatile situation. The pardon was an extraordinary act coming so early in a presidency and sets a tone both on immigration and on the president’s willingness to use this power to take care of those who have been loyal to him. That is something that could come into play in the future, depending on the outcome of the investigation into Russian meddling in the 2016 election.
Arpaio made his reputation as an uncompromising sheriff whose harsh treatment of undocumented immigrants over many years drew criticism, condemnation and eventually legal action. He became a national symbol in the immigration debate — loved, reviled and unrepentant. He defied a judge’s order to stop racially profiling Latinos in his state. When he kept on with the practice, he was eventually convicted of criminal contempt, a misdemeanor. Now he has been pardoned.
President Donald Trump gestures to the crowd while speaking at a rally Tuesday in Phoenix. (Rick Scuteri/AP)
Once the speculation about a pardon for Arpaio surfaced, the endgame was never in doubt. It was certainly not in question after what Trump said during his angry, off-script performance in Phoenix on Tuesday night. He wouldn’t say the exact words at the time and would not use the rally to announce the decision, but his intention was clear. “I’ll make a prediction,” he said of Arpaio that night. “He’s going to be just fine.”
Nonetheless, when the pardon came down, the decision created a fresh controversy for a president already embattled. Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), who has felt the political blowback of anti-illegal-immigration forces whenever he has tried to help craft a comprehensive legislative solution, and who has tangled regularly with Trump, was one of the first to condemn the move.
“Mr. Arpaio was found guilty of criminal contempt for continuing to illegally profile Latinos living in Arizona based on their perceived immigration status in violation of a judge’s orders,” McCain, who is being treated for brain cancer, said in a statement released Friday night. “The president has the authority to make this pardon, but doing so at this time undermines his claim for the respect of rule of law as Mr. Arpaio has shown no remorse for his actions.”
What was perhaps unexpected was the timing of the pardon. For starters, it came only days after the president had delivered a speech about national unity before the American Legion in Reno, Nev.
That speech was Trump’s latest effort to undo the damage from his multiple statements after the white-supremacist march in Charlottesville on Aug. 12. Criticized for failing to unequivocally condemn neo-Nazis and the Ku Klux Klan at the time, he has tried both to rewrite the history of what he actually said and issue calls for unity.
In Reno, he called on everyone to help “heal the wounds that have divided us, and to seek a new unity based on the common values that unite us.” The pardon for Arpaio put that speech into fresh context. Actions speak louder than words.
What also was unexpected was that Trump decided to announce the pardon as Hurricane Harvey was bearing down on Texas. At a time when the public would expect the president to stay fully focused on the well-being of people in harm’s way of a powerful storm, he chose to divert the country’s attention by stirring controversy elsewhere.
Ever since his election, Trump has had the opportunity to try to expand his coalition, to reach beyond his base and to increase the size of his governing constituency. His electoral margin was comfortable enough, but three of the states that tipped the balance — Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin — were decided by less than a percentage point, and he lost the national popular vote to Hillary Clinton. That’s a fragile basis from which to govern.
Given those realities, a prudent politician presumably would seek ways to draw more voters into his or her orbit. Trump consistently has done the opposite, with actions designed to bind himself ever more tightly to the constituency that elected him at the cost of permanently losing potential supporters. The Arpaio pardon fits that pattern in bold colors.
Gov. Greg Abbott on Saturday said that his primary concern remains “dramatic flooding” in the wake of the storm.
Speaking at atelevised news conference in Austin, Governor Abbott said state and other agencies remained active in search and rescue efforts. “We don’t have any information right now that we can confirm” about fatalities, he said.
He warned Texans to be vigilant and to stay away from rising water, noting that it can be far deeper, with swifter currents, than it may appear.
“Turn around, don’t drown. Don’t risk your life,” he said. “The most important thing all Texans can do is to put your life and the protection of your life first and foremost.”
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Rockport was in the hurricane’s direct path when it came ashore and many building suffered extensive damage. Credit
Tamir Kalifa for The New York Times
He said agencies were focused on supporting evacuees from Corpus Christi and elsewhere, and on getting supplies, such as food, water and ice, to areas that needed it. — JOHANNA BARR in New York
Hundreds of thousands are without power.
The storm remained a hurricane well after landfall, and conditions, including tornado warnings, made it difficult for the authorities to begin even preliminary damage assessments.
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More than 250,000 customers were without electricity early Saturday, a figure that was likely to increase. Corpus Christi urged people who were still in the city to boil water.
Images and videos on social media showed substantial damage to buildings, including roofs and walls pulled away. Power lines were toppled, and phone service was down.
Early rainfall totals were staggering. The National Hurricane Center said that an automated rain gauge near Victoria, a city of about 68,000 in the path of the storm, had recorded more than 16 inches in 24 hours.
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A truck in flood waters passed a home damaged by the storm in Aransas Pass, Tex. Credit
Eric Gay/Associated Press
As rains picked up in Houston before daybreak on Saturday, the lights began to blink and, in some areas, go out. The city’s roads, largely quiet since Friday evening, were almost entirely empty. — ALAN BLINDER in Houston
Rockport, in the storm’s path, took a direct hit.
Rockport, a coastal city of about 10,000 that was in the hurricane’s path when it came ashore. Charles J. Wax, Rockport’s mayor, said that conditions were too dangerous on Saturday morning to deploy emergency officials across the city, but that an initial review, as the storm’s eye passed overnight, showed “widespread damage.”
“Homes and businesses completely destroyed, lives disrupted,” said Mr. Wax, who said that a Fairfield Inn and Suites had sustained heavy damage. “We do not know if there is any loss of life, but that may be because we haven’t been able to assess.”
“We took a Category 4 storm right on the nose,” said Mr. Wax, who had issued a mandatory evacuation order. — ALAN BLINDER in Houston
A vast field now resembles a lake.
In the ranchlands a few miles outside Rockport on Saturday morning, there was heavy flooding. Acres of flat fields resembled lakes. A herd of cattle wandered slowly through the water, as if crossing a low river. Horses stood still, braving wind and rain. — MANNY FERNANDEZ in Rockport, Tex.
Houston residents woke to light rain and an overcast sky. At a Walmart north of downtown, a few people came in for last-minute supplies. But some shelves had been emptied by hurricane-wary residents the night before. Employees said they would close the store at noon.
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Juan Cruz, 52, wheeled a cart out the door. He’d noticed that rain from the night before had caused his roof to leak, and he’d bought a tarp to cover it, hoping to stay dry if things got worse. Mr. Cruz, a mechanic, said he lived through Hurricane Mitch in Honduras and remembered the devastation. The storm killed his neighbors, flooded roads and tore up bridges, he said.
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“Maybe it won’t be that bad,” he said. “It depends on God.” — JULIE TURKEWITZ in Houston
In a sturdy hotel, some find a haven.
Near the Corpus Christi airport, a Holiday Inn lobby was ablaze with lights and electricity on Saturday morning, and Chuck Berry tunes played in the background. The hotel was filled with local residents who had checked in on Friday, hoping that the old sturdy building would be a safe place to ride out the hurricane.
Ultimately, it was: the power flickered, but held on. The air-conditioning was humming. The blue-lit fountain in the lobby was still churning, mimicking the sound of the rain and wind outside. Trees and scattered debris filled the parking lot, but there was no major damage to the 256-room hotel.
Raju Bhagat, who owns the hotel and several others in the Corpus Christi area, stayed there overnight, joined by some of his employees and their families.
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Tony Buchanan and Myava Buchanan watching heavy rain and winds from Hurricane Harvey on Friday night from a hotel in Corpus Christi, Tex. They had been evacuated from Aransas Pass, Tex. Credit
Tamir Kalifa for The New York Times
“This is a concrete building, so nothing is going to happen here,” Mr. Bhagat said. — MANNY FERNANDEZ in Corpus Christi
Shelters were readied for evacuees.
As thousands of coastal residents were ordered to evacuate on Friday, and others chose to leave on their own, inland cities welcomed an influx of evacuees on Friday.
Gov. Greg Abbott said the state government was preparing to assist up to 41,000 evacuees. As many as 54 shelters would be open, officials said, with the potential for that number to grow.
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Dallas opened a shelter for up to 500 people, and was ready to open two more if needed, officials there said.
“We are prepared to handle much more than we are right now,” said Rocky Vaz, director of the Dallas Office of Emergency Management.
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Refineries in Houston shut down operations in preparation for the storm. Credit
Alyssa Schukar for The New York Times
In Austin, the American Red Cross scheduled an “urgent shelter volunteer training” session on Friday as officials prepared for more evacuees to arrive.
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Central TX Red Cross (@CenTexRedCross) Aug. 25, 2017
And in San Antonio, more than 150 people were being housed at a former elementary school as of Friday morning, according to the local news station KSAT-TV. Many of those seeking shelter had arrived by bus.
San Antonio was also bracing for a possible uptick in homeless pets, and was offering incentives for people to help clear space in local animal shelters.
—
Central TX Red Cross (@CenTexRedCross) Aug. 25, 2017
On Friday afternoon, Mr. Abbott urged those in the storm’s path to flee to safety as soon as possible, warning that continued flooding after initial storm surges may close off escape routes. “You may find it is too late to be able to evacuate,” he said. — MITCH SMITH in Chicago and DAVE MONTGOMERY in Houston
There were lines, but no price increase, at gas pumps.
In years past, major hurricanes caused immediate spikes in oil and gasoline prices, but as hard as Hurricane Harvey has hit the region’s refineries, the impact at the pump has so far been muted.
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Department of Transportation crews installing the final portion of a surge wall leading to the Port Aransas ferry in Aransas Pass, Tex., on Friday, where a mandatory evacuation order was in place. Credit
Nick Wagner/Austin American-Statesman, via Associated Press
The average price of a gallon of regular gasoline in Texas was $2.17 a gallon on Sunday morning, up only 2 cents from the beginning of the week, according to the AAA motor club, below the national average of $2.36 a gallon, also up 2 cents this week. The reason is a glut of oil and gasoline in storage, due to a frenzy of drilling in shale fields across the country, but especially in Texas, in recent years.
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However, it may take days before the full impact of the storm is known. Roughly a million barrels a day of refining capacity has been shut down on the Gulf Coast, and nearly a quarter of Gulf offshore production has been shut in. The Corpus Christi shipping terminals responsible for importing and exporting oil and refined products are also closed, and if the ship channel between Port Aransas and Aransas Pass is badly damaged it could take weeks for production to resume. — CLIFFORD KRAUSS in Houston
Predictions are plentiful. Why are some wrong?
One of the terms thrown around when a hurricane is approaching land is models — what do the models say will happen? Hurricane computer models turn the complex factors that govern storms into forecasts. There are a number of leading hurricane models, and their forecasts often conflict. The discrepancies are evident in what are known as “spaghetti models”: maps that show the results of multiple models and multiple data runs in what can be a tangled mess.
Some models in the case of Hurricane Harvey show stunningly high levels of rainfall in coming days: a run on Friday from the European model forecast as much as 60 inches of rainfall. J. Marshall Shepherd, director of the atmospheric sciences program at the University of Georgia, warned against focusing on the most extreme examples presented by any single model or run.
“That’s one isolated run,” he said. “What we tend to do as meteorologists is look at what’s known as an ensemble,” or a blending of the runs to filter out what could be outliers. Focusing on one line in the spaghetti plot is a bad idea without greater context; “that might be the worst model in the batch,” he said.
Dr. Shepherd said that models have, in general, gotten better in recent years at forecasting the track of a storm, but have not done as well at predicting a storm’s intensity.
In the case of Harvey, he said, “they’ve all been pretty consistent with the messaging,” despite varying forecasts of rainfall amounts. “This thing is going to stall out” and dump prodigious amounts of water over Houston and much of the coast. And Houston has historically been a place that is easy to flood and hard to drain. — JOHN SCHWARTZ
The storm has rerouted some cruise ships.
Cruise ships carrying thousands of passengers and crew have been ordered to steer clear of the Port of Galveston. The port, which is less than 200 miles northeast of where the hurricane made landfall late Friday, was closed until the weather clears.
Carnival Cruise Line diverted three ships scheduled to arrive at the port this weekend. Rather than docking in Galveston on Saturday, Carnival Valor and Carnival Freedom were to stop in New Orleans to pick up fuel, water and food, then stay at sea until the weather clears. The 3,666 passengers on Freedom and the 3,628 passengers on Valor will be allowed to end their cruise and disembark in New Orleans, though Carnival is encouraging them to stay on board to avoid the difficulty of traveling back to Galveston on their own. Carnival Breeze remained docked overnight in Cozumel, Mexico, and will set off for Texas in the afternoon, aiming to drop off its 4,660 passengers in Galveston on Sunday on schedule. — TIFFANY HSU in New York
President Donald Trump gestures to the crowd while speaking at a rally Tuesday in Phoenix. (Rick Scuteri/AP)
