Thursday, November 7, 2024

Hurricane Irma battering Florida Peninsula, with ‘catastrophic’ storm surge feared

September 11, 2017 by  
Filed under Lingerie Events

Comments Off

(This post will be updated throughout Sunday, every hour or so. It was last updated at 8:00 p.m. to reflect the latest National Hurricane Center advisory and current conditions in Florida.)

Extremely dangerous Hurricane Irma first crashed into the Florida Keys on Sunday morning and then made a second landfall on Marco Island on Florida’s west coast Sunday afternoon, unleashing violent wind gusts up to 142 mph and storm-surge flooding . As the vicious storm scoots up Florida’s west coast into this evening, forecasters fear that this storm will go down as one of the worst in the state’s history.

At 8 p.m., the storm was centered 15 miles east-northeast of Fort Myers. Its eyewall – containing the storm’s most violent winds, was entering Port Charlotte. The storm center was headed north at 14 mph toward Sarasota and Tampa, where winds of 75 to 100 mph were expected to arrive later between about 9 p.m. and midnight, south to north.

Ocean levels were rising quickly in Southwest Florida as the storm center lifted north. In Naples, the storm surge raised water levels 8 feet in two hours, between about 4:30 and 6:30 p.m.

Irma’s peak winds of 105 mph, with higher gusts, had dropped 20 mph from the morning, making it a Category 2 hurricane (down from a Category 4). Even with slow weakening likely to continue as the storm passes over land, Irma remains very serious and life-threatening. The National Hurricane Center said it is expected to remain a hurricane through Monday morning.

Coastal waters could rise 10 to 15 feet above normally dry land in sections of Southwest Florida, inundating homes, businesses and roads, an “imminent danger,” according to the Hurricane Center.

When Irma crashed into the Keys early Sunday as a Category 4, following Hurricane Harvey’s assault in Texas, it marked the first time on record that two Category 4 storms had made landfall in the United States in the same year.

Because of the storm’s magnitude, the entire state of Florida is being severely affected by damaging winds and torrential rains. Tropical storm and hurricane conditions were also predicted to spread into the Florida Panhandle, eastern Alabama, much of Georgia and southern South Carolina by Monday.

The latest


(National Hurricane Center)

Southwest Florida

Irma’s eyewall passed through Fort Myers and Cape Coral just before 7 p.m., producing wind gusts of 88 and 101 mph and was moving into Port Charlotte at 8 p.m., which could expect gusts in this range through 9 p.m.

As the eyewall moved over Naples late Sunday afternoon, it reported sustained winds of 93 mph and a gust to 142 mph – the strongest recorded from this storm in the U.S.

Josh Morgerman, a hurricane chaser positioned in Naples, described the scene: “Went thru violent, destructive winds. Screaming, whiteout, wreckage blowing by in fog.” Then the calm eye moved overhead.

Before the arrival of the storm center, water was actually retreating from Naples to Tampa due to offshore winds from the east pulling the sea back. But forecasters warned residents that shortly after the storm’s center passed to the north and winds blew back onshore, waters would rush back in rapidly causing severe inundation.

In Naples, as of 7 p.m., water levels were about four feet above normally dry land but was the level was starting to stabilize around 8 p.m.

Central Florida

Tropical-storm force winds and hurricane-force gusts were fairly widespread Sunday evening. Orlando clocked a gust to 79 mph and at St. Lucie, on the east coast, a gust reached 99 mph.

Southeast Florida

In Southeast Florida, spiral bands continued to unleash tropical-storm-force winds. Even into the evening, winds were gusting up to 60 to 75 mph around Miami and West Palm Beach (7 p.m. gust of 75 mph), but they weren’t as strong as earlier.

In the afternoon, sustained winds in Miami and Fort Lauderdale reached 50-60 mph through the early afternoon, gusting as high as 80 to 100 mph. Miami International Airport clocked a gust to 94 mph and an isolated gust hit 100 mph at the University of Miami.

Also during the afternoon the seas had risen several feet above normally dry land. Social media photos and videos showed water pouring through Miami’s streets, in between high-rises, amid sideways sheets of rains.

Late Sunday afternoon, waters were finally starting to slowly recede around Miami.

The Keys

While the core of the storm and worst winds passed the Keys early Sunday morning, the Weather Service warned storm surge flooding was ongoing as winds on the storm’s backside shoved water over the islands. Gusts still reached 60 to 75 mph as of 6:40 p.m.

Early Sunday afternoon, the maximum surge at Cudjoe Key was estimated at 10 feet.

Statewide

Over 2.5 million customers were without power.

Particularly in South and Central Florida, torrential rain was falling, with widespread totals of 6 to 10 inches and pockets up to 10 to 14 inches.

As the storm’s spiral bands walloped Central and Northern Florida, the potential for tornadoes arose in the swirling air, and the Weather Service issued watches and scores of warnings.

Storm warnings in effect and predicted surge height and winds

Hurricane warnings cover all of Florida except the western Panhandle, where a tropical storm warning was in effect.

A storm-surge warning was also issued for much of the Florida Peninsula (except for a small section from North Miami Beach to Jupiter Inlet), and even extended up the Georgia coast into southern South Carolina. The Hurricane Center said that this would bring the risk of “dangerous” and “life-threatening” inundation and that the threat was highest along Florida’s southwest coast and in the Florida Keys, where it said the surge is expected to be “catastrophic.”


(National Weather Service)

“In SOUTHWEST FLORIDA — the NAPLES-FT. MYERS-CAPE CORAL area, the potential exists for the worst hurricane in history,” Norcross said.

Because of the shift in the most likely storm track to the west, Miami and Southeast Florida were most likely to miss the storm’s intensely destructive core, known as the eyewall, where winds are strongest. Even so, because of Irma’s enormous size, the entire Florida Peninsula and even the Panhandle were likely to witness damaging winds. The National Hurricane Center warned that the storm would bring “life-threatening wind impacts to much of the state.”


European model simulation of maximum winds gusts every 6 hours Sunday to Monday from Hurricane Irma. (WeatherBell.com)

Effects on Florida

Conditions will continue to deteriorate Sunday night over Florida in the central and north part of the state as Irma chugs up the coast. Conditions will slowly improve to the south.

During the evening, Port Charlotte, Sarasota and Tampa would face the storm’s brunt.

Here’s a guide to what is most likely and where …

Key West/Key Largo

Time frame for worst conditions: Through Sunday afternoon.

Hazard threats: Wind, storm surge and rain.

Wind gusts of up to 50 to 70 mph should continue into the evening.

A catastrophic storm surge of 5 to 10 feet or more is expected to inundate much of the island chain. Heavy rain will add to the water issues, as anywhere from 5 to 10 inches of additional rain will fall before the worst of the storm is over. Unfortunately, the damage potential on the Keys could be landscape-altering after taking a direct hit from this storm.

Miami/Fort Lauderdale/West Palm Beach

Time frame for worst conditions: Through Sunday night.

Hazard threats: Strong winds, tornadoes, heavy rain.

Sustained winds of 45 to 70 mph with gusts of 80-plus mph will last well into Sunday evening.

Swirling winds at all levels of the atmosphere have also increased the chances of tornadoes developing at any point on Sunday, especially in locations right along the water. Rainfall totals of four to eight inches or more are expected on Sunday alone, which may exacerbate localized flooding. With Irma’s last-minute track shift to the west, the storm surge won’t be as big of a concern here as it is elsewhere, with a two- to four-foot surge expected along much of Florida’s east coast.

Naples/Fort Myers/Tampa Bay/St. Petersburg

Time frame for worst conditions: Through Monday morning.

Hazard threats: Storm surge and wind.

Irma’s ultimate destination will be along the west coast of Florida. This means the conditions will deteriorate rapidly from Naples to Tampa Bay throughout Sunday afternoon. However, Irma’s path will take it parallel to the west coast of Florida, keeping the entire region engulfed in the dangerous northeast quadrant of the storm, where winds are strongest. Sustained hurricane force winds and gusts over 100 mph should arrive in Naples Sunday afternoon and up to 75-100 mph in St. Petersburg/Tampa Bay between 10 p.m. and midnight or so.


Hurricane force winds will make their way up Florida’s west coast, peaking in Naples this evening and in the St. Petersburg/Tampa area after midnight. Via NWS

The most dangerous hazard for this region will be the extreme storm surge. Nowhere in the entire state will the storm-surge levels be higher than along the gulf-facing coast, with storm surge totals of eight to 12 feet and locally up to 15 feet forecast. Any coastal city from Tampa Bay south to Naples is at risk, with historic flooding (the likes of which haven’t been seen in this area since Hurricane Donna in 1960) threatening thousands of people and structures.

Orlando/Central Florida 

Time frame for worst conditions: Sunday night through Monday morning.

Hazard threats: Wind, rain, and tornadoes.

Inland areas won’t escape the effects of Irma. The storm is extremely large in size, with tropical-storm-force winds extending outward over 200 miles from the center. The wind speeds in central Florida and the Orlando area will start to pick up by late Sunday afternoon, with sustained winds of 40 to 60 mph and gusts of 70-plus mph lasting from late Sunday night through Monday morning.

Heavy rain will also cause problems, with a general six to 12-plus inches of rain expected by the time the storm is over. The threat of tornadoes will increase by Sunday night, as well, as the storm’s center tracks north along the west coast of Florida.

Jacksonville/Daytona Beach 

Time frame for worst conditions: Sunday evening through Monday afternoon.

Hazard threats: Rain, tornadoes, wind.

The northeast portion of Florida will be spared the worst of Irma but won’t escape unscathed. Sustained tropical-force winds of 40 to 55 mph will overspread the area from Daytona Beach to Jacksonville by Sunday evening, with the worst winds (gusts up to 70 mph) occurring overnight. Heavy rain will be a story line here as six to 10-plus inches of rain is expected to fall in a relatively short period.

As with other parts of the state, the tornado threat will peak overnight on Sunday as Irma’s storm center tracks northward.

Storm-surge values will be elevated (two to four feet) but should result in only minor to moderate coastal flooding.

Potential effects on Georgia and the southeastern United States

Georgia/Atlanta/South Carolina

Time frame for worst conditions: Monday morning through Tuesday morning.

Hazard threats: Wind, rain and, at the coast, storm surge

Hurricane warnings extend well into Georgia, covering over half of the state. Parts of southern South Carolina also are under a hurricane warning, with Irma poised to maintain its hurricane-force strength for several hours after landfall.

Sustained tropical force winds of 25 to 45 mph will spread over Georgia from south to north starting late Sunday night. The strongest sustained winds (40 to 50 mph) with gusts of 60-plus mph will move in on early Monday morning, lasting through Monday evening. This includes Atlanta, which is under a tropical-storm warning, where sustained winds of 25 to 40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph will occur from about 10 p.m. Sunday night to about 5 p.m. Monday afternoon. This could lead to downed trees and outages.

Heavy rain is also expected, with storm totals of six to 10 inches forecast, the bulk of which should fall Monday.

Storm surge along the Georgia/South Carolina coast will be a hazard, as well, with the Hurricane Center predicting a surge of four to six feet. Of particular concern is the duration of the storm surge. Persistent onshore winds will extend the surge component here, with elevated water levels potentially lasting up to 36 hours.

Irma’s path so far

At 3:35 p.m. Sunday, Irma had made its second U.S. landfall of the day over Marco Island, where a wind gust of 130 mph was reported.

Earlier, the storm officially made its initial U.S. landfall at Cudjoe Key at 9:10 a.m. as a Category 4 hurricane. Winds over the Keys raged, gusting to at least 94 mph in Key West (before the wind instrument failed) and up to 120 mph in Big Pine Key. Witness video showed the rising storm surge flooding Key West streets.

Before its encounter with the Keys, Irma made landfall on the north coast of Cuba as a Category 5 hurricane just after 9 p.m. Friday, with maximum sustained winds of 160 mph. It became that country’s first Category 5 hurricane since 1924. Fueled by the extremely warm ocean temperatures, Irma reintensified to the maximum hurricane classification level after weakening slightly on Friday afternoon.

As it scraped Cuba’s north coast early Saturday, it produced a sustained wind gust of 118 mph, and a gust to 159 mph was reported at Falla, Cuba, in the eyewall of the hurricane.


Irma’s eye approaches the north coast of Cuba on Friday night. Via
NASA

On Friday, before making landfall along Cuba’s north-central coast, Irma passed north of Haiti and then between Cuba’s northeast coast and the Central Bahamas.

Thursday evening, the center of the storm passed very close to the Turks and Caicos, producing potentially catastrophic Category 5 winds. The storm surge was of particular concern, as the water had the potential to rise 16 to 20 feet above normally dry land in coastal sections north of the storm center, causing extreme inundation.

A devastating storm surge and destructive winds had also probably battered the southeastern Bahamas, near Great Inagua Island.

Through early Thursday, the storm had battered islands from Puerto Rico to the northern Lesser Antilles.

While the center of Irma passed just north of Puerto Rico late Wednesday, a wind gust of 63 mph was clocked in San Juan early Wednesday evening, and more than 900,000 people were reported to be without power. In Culebra, Puerto Rico, a small island 17 miles east of the main island, a wind gust registered 111 mph in the afternoon.

On Wednesday afternoon, the storm’s eye had moved over Virgin Gorda in the British Virgin Islands, and its southern eyewall raked St. Thomas in the U.S. Virgin Islands.

Early Wednesday afternoon, a wind gust to 131 mph was clocked on Buck Island and 87 mph on St. Thomas in the U.S. Virgin Islands.

On Tuesday night and Wednesday morning, the hurricane passed directly over Barbuda and St. Martin in the northern Leeward Islands, the strongest hurricane recorded in that region and tied with the 1935 Florida Keys hurricane as the strongest Atlantic storm to strike land.

As Barbuda took a direct hit, the weather station there clocked a wind gust to 155 mph before it went offline.

The storm also passed directly over Anguilla and St. Martin early Wednesday, causing severe damage.

Irma’s place in history

Irma’s peak intensity (185 mph) ranks among the strongest in recorded history, exceeding the likes of Katrina, Andrew and Camille — whose winds peaked at 175 mph.

Among the most intense storms on record, it trails only Hurricane Allen in 1980, which had winds of 190 mph. It is tied for second-most intense with Hurricane Wilma in 2005, Hurricane Gilbert in 1988 and the 1935 Florida Keys hurricane.

The storm maintained maximum wind speeds of at least 180 mph for 37 hours, longer than any storm on Earth on record, passing Super Typhoon Haiyan, the previous record-holder (24 hours).

Late Tuesday, its pressure dropped to 914 millibars (the lower the pressure, the stronger the storm), ranking as the lowest of any storm on record outside the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico in the Atlantic basin.

The storm has generated the most “accumulated cyclone energy,” a measure of a storm’s duration and intensity, of any hurricane on record.

Irma’s landfall pressure of 929 millibars in the Florida Keys was the lowest for any U.S. landfalling hurricane since Katrina (920 millibars) and for a Florida landfall since Andrew (922 millibars). It ranks as the seventh-lowest pressure of any U.S. landfalling storm.

Capital Weather Gang hurricane expert Brian McNoldy contributed to this report. Credit to tropical-weather expert and occasional Capital Weather Gang contributor Phil Klotzbach for some of the statistics in this section.

Share and Enjoy

  • Facebook
  • Twitter
  • Delicious
  • LinkedIn
  • StumbleUpon
  • Add to favorites
  • Email
  • RSS

In deal with Trump, Democrats see opportunity — and peril

September 10, 2017 by  
Filed under Lingerie Events

Comments Off

Democratic leaders have been running victory laps in the days since they struck a deal with President Trump, over Republican objections, to extend the nation’s borrowing limit and keep the government open for three months.

But new divisions among Democrats show that peril may yet lie ahead for Senate Minority Leader Charles E. Schumer (D-N.Y.) and House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), whose newfound connection with the president has put them in a similar spot as many Republicans this year: working with an unreliable and unpopular partner to attain legislative goals that may never materialize.

Trump’s abrupt overtures to Schumer and Pelosi this week have raised difficult questions for the party out of power about how much to collaborate with a mercurial president whose policies and rhetoric have stirred widespread anger and fear on the left.

A growing number of Democratic lawmakers and activists are voicing worries about getting too close to Trump, whom they have held up as the opposite of what they stand for on issues of race, immigration, the environment and the economy — and whom they hope to campaign against in next year’s midterm elections.

At the same time, party leaders are trying to build on the surprise dynamic that materialized this week in hopes of advancing elements of an agenda that has been largely shut out of the legislative process since Republicans assumed control of the White House and Congress in January.

The challenge of that balancing act is compounded by existing struggles that erupted in the party after last year’s election losses and have yet to settle. While they have stood united against Trump this year, Democrats have also been riven by ideological divisions, competing power centers and the lack of a clear identity or leader.

Now, they are at yet another crossroads.

“Our base is deeply alienated from this president,” Rep. Gerald E. Connolly (D-Va.) said in an interview Friday. “Our base is not saying, ‘Work with him; try to find some common ground.’ ”

“That base,” he added, “will be quite jaded about any overt attempts to make him look good or somehow normalize what we’ve experienced here.”

Connolly, like many Democrats, hopes Trump’s sudden willingness to work with them will pave the way for a legislative deal to help 690,000 young undocumented immigrants brought into the United States as children, who now face an uncertain future after Trump decided this week that in six months, an Obama-era program to protect them will end.

Trump sided with Pelosi and Schumer this week when he backed a three-month extension of the debt ceiling and government funding as part of a package that also offers more than $15 billion in disaster relief funding related to Hurricane Harvey.

Congressional Republican leaders wanted a longer-term deal — in part to avert a December showdown that is likely to give Democrats leverage to usher in a replacement for the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) program that Trump pledged to end. Republicans had also hoped to avoid voting more than once on raising the nation’s borrowing limit before next year’s midterm elections.

Still, some Democrats are frustrated that party leaders did not demand more in the package that passed this week — notably a more immediate solution to the immigration question.

“I pled with the Democratic leadership not to allow a vote on a continuing resolution on the funding of our government, not to allow a vote on raising the debt limit, if we didn’t bring you with us,” said Rep. Luis V. Gutiérrez (D-Ill.) at a news conference Friday. He later added: “We didn’t prevail.”

In an interview with reporters Friday, Pelosi did not back down from her negotiating tactics. She said she does not think Democratic voters believe that she and Schumer should avoid finding common ground with Trump.

“I make no apology for doing that with the person who is going to sign the bill,” said Pelosi, who was also able to persuade Trump to tweet a reassuring message to young immigrants this week. “It gives you great leverage.”

Others were skeptical.

“Short-term tactics may not serve progressive interests in the long term,” said Norman Solomon, a delegate last year to the Democratic National Convention for Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.). “I think this whole path of getting chummy with Trump is fraught with land mines and pitfalls, and Trump is an expert at detonating under people’s feet.”

Some Democrats think Trump has warmed to Democrats as a way to punish Republican leaders, with whom he has had troubled relations and with whom he has not achieved any major legislative wins.

For that reason, those Democrats are approaching the president cautiously. They are also reminding themselves of how much they disagree with the ideas that have defined the early months of his presidency.

Those include his proposed ban on entry to the United States by citizens of certain countries, his controversial blaming of both sides after a deadly white supremacist rally in Charlottesville and his rollback of Obama-era environmental policies, as well as his decision to end DACA.

Democrats have used these developments to begin building a case against the president ahead of the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential election. But some strategists said the legislative tactics of the minority party in Congress are a separate question from where the party’s center of gravity lies as the next presidential race approaches. Democrats got something at almost no cost in the deal with Trump, some said.

“The Democrats haven’t lost anything. If you can get a deal entirely on your terms, you’d be nuts not to take it just because Trump is on the other side of the table,” said Brian Fallon, who was Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign press secretary and a former aide to Schumer.

The question of whether cooperating with Trump poses reputational risks for Democrats now or later comes amid echoes of the bitter rift between supporters of Clinton and Sanders during last year’s Democratic primaries.

Those battle lines have re-formed in recent days with the leaking of portions of Clinton’s 2016 memoir, “What Happened,” including a broadside against Sanders for allegedly weakening Democrats and creating an opening for Trump.

“His attacks caused lasting damage, making it harder to unify progressives in the general election and paving the way for Trump’s ‘Crooked Hillary’ campaign. I don’t know if that bothered Bernie or not,” Clinton writes.

Sanders suggested Thursday that the blame lies elsewhere.

“Look, you know, Secretary Clinton ran against the most unpopular candidate in the history of this country, and she lost,” Sanders said during an interview on CBS’s “Late Show” with Stephen Colbert. “And she was upset by that. I understand that.”

In addition to the lingering bitterness from the end of the campaign, some Democrats have also openly questioned the efficacy of their current leaders, including Pelosi. What looks like a wide-open 2020 Democratic primary has left the party without a clear political standard-bearer. Heated intraparty debates have also opened up over whether candidates for office should face litmus tests on abortion and health care.

But when it comes to the first few months of Trump’s presidency, there is far more agreement among Democrats, who have stood forcefully against the president. Still, some have found a way to separate that from the gears of governance.

“I think at the end of the day, if it’s Trump acceding to Democratic demands or Democratic priorities, Democrats believe in government working,” said Neera Tanden, president of the liberal Center for American Progress and a former Clinton aide. “That’s a big difference between us and the other side. People are pragmatic to that extent.”

Asked Friday whether Trump’s agreement with Democrats might become a habit, White House press secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders said voters expected pragmatism and bipartisanship from Trump. She brushed aside questions about Republican annoyance.

“The most important thing is that the deal got done. The president acted on it, and he worked with Democrats to get it done,” Sanders said. “And I think he’s going to continue to work with whoever is interested in moving the ball forward to help the American people.”

For many unconvinced Democrats, the question that remained unanswered was how long Trump will be interested in working with them. Few are wagering they are at the beginning of a lasting relationship.

“I don’t see it as anything but what’s necessary to get us beyond the moment,” said Rep. James E. Clyburn (D-S.C.), the assistant House Democratic leader. “I don’t see it as anything that is sustained for any relationship going down the road.”

Kelsey Snell and Mike DeBonis contributed to this report.

Share and Enjoy

  • Facebook
  • Twitter
  • Delicious
  • LinkedIn
  • StumbleUpon
  • Add to favorites
  • Email
  • RSS