Confused by Trump, North Korea Contacts Former US Officials to Explain President’s Behavior
September 30, 2017 by admin
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The proverbial game of chicken between President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has only escalated in recent months, but amid the public name-calling and threats of annihilation, regime officials have been quietly attempting to set up meetings with Republican analysts in an apparent attempt to better understand the mixed messages coming from the Trump administration.
North Korea has consistently demonstrated that it is unwilling to engage in direct negotiations over its rapidly developing nuclear program despite Trump’s fiery rhetoric and increased sanctions — growing more defiant in the wake of several successful ballistic missile launches and its latest nuclear test.
President Donald Trump takes questions from reporters before boarding Marine One on the South Lawn of the White House, Sept. 29, 2017. (Credit: Drew Angerer / Getty Images)
While top diplomats continue to insist the US prefers a diplomatic resolution to rein in the rogue nation, there is little evidence to indicate that either side is willing to concede any ground on key issues that could open the door to formal negotiations.
The absence of official diplomatic talks has only increased the likelihood of a potential miscalculation, according to several experts, noting that Trump’s sometimes unpredictable threats of “fire and fury” and a “devastating” military option have been publicly contradicted at times by several of his top advisers hoping to strike a more cautious tone.
But amid the bluster, North Korea has attempted to engage in what the US qualifies as “track two” talks to facilitate conversation beyond formal diplomatic channels and it is not unusual for intermediaries to approach American scholars or ex-officials with particular political ties when a new administration takes office.
The White House is aware when these meetings occur and provided with any information that might be gathered, according to experts who have engaged in talks.
Outreach by North Korean government officials started in January after Trump’s inauguration with the goal of gaining a broad understanding as to how the new president’s policies might differ from those of the previous administration, according to several experts who were approached.
“They wanted to get a beat on the new president … but that did not happen,” said Douglas Paal, a member of President Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush’s National Security Council staffs who was contacted on several occasions by the North Koreans this year.
The Washington Post first reported that North Korean officials were reaching out to several Republican-linked analysts to get a better understanding of Trump’s messaging.
“I think they may have thought that reaching out to people who represent what is now the mainstream way of thinking and had who had more access to the Trump administration than people in past was a better way to send messages or get information,” said Bruce Klingner, a former CIA analyst and the top expert on North Korea at the conservative-leaning Heritage Foundation.
“They are trying to piece together what they can about what the US policy is under the new administration,” he said. “But even in Washington, we are often confused or have questions about what the parameters of the policies are, so imagine trying to assess Washington from further away, in Seoul, Tokyo, and Pyongyang.”
Klingner declined an invitation from North Korea’s mission to the United Nations to visit Pyongyang for meetings but he has participated in multiple conferences involving North Korean officials.
“They are trying to discern what the policy is and possible triggers for red lines,” Klingner told CNN, adding that efforts to contact conservative or Republican analysts are likely the result of confusion over the Trump administration’s messaging in the absence of official diplomatic talks with the US government.
While these talks can provide valuable opportunities for both sides to gather information, Klingner emphasized that the North Koreans should use official channels to communicate any messages that might signal they are serious about negotiations directly to the US government.
The US has communicated directly with North Korea at times through its mission to the UN — known as the “New York Channel.”
Communications through this channel were cut off in July 2016 but re-opened to facilitate the return of Otto Warmbier — an American student who had been imprisoned in North Korea, according to Klingner, who added that efforts to engage in track two talks did not just begin with the Trump administration or while the channel was closed.
North Korea’s mission to the UN did not respond to CNN’s request for comment.
However, Trump and Kim’s war of words has coincided with an uptick in outreach by North Korean intermediaries seeking to establish alternate channels of communication — but experts said they noticed a shift in tone from the North Koreans in recent months compared to meetings earlier this year.
While Klingner declined an invitation to travel to Pyongyang, he did meet with North Korean officials in June during a conference in Sweden.
“The North Koreans were much more self-assured than they had been in previous meetings,” Klingner said, adding that the message seemed to be that “denuclearization was completely off the table and there was nothing the US or Seoul could offer that would change that.”
That point was only emphasized as North Korean officials became irritated when American experts began to float possible ideas for a compromise, Klingner said.
Paal also said that the North Koreans seemed unwilling cede ground when he was approached about a possible meeting in August and viewed these meetings as an opportunity to repeat their terms.
“Our conclusion was they are still not serious about talks,” Paal told CNN, adding that he thinks North Korea won’t stop until it is nuclear capable.
And evidence suggests Pyongyang is approaching that capability at a more rapid pace than previously thought following a string of successful ballistic missile launches and its sixth nuclear test earlier this month.
But from the outside looking in, some experts said the North Koreans are continuing to reach out to these American analysts because Trump has caught Kim off guard with his bluster and there is a real concern about what could happen next.
According to Bruce Bennett, a senior researcher at the RAND Corporation who specializes in North Korea, Kim may have alluded to this point during his televised response to Trump’s speech to the UN General Assembly this month when the President warned the US would “totally destroy North Korea” if forced to defend itself or its allies.
In a rare televised address, Kim admitted that Trump’s remarks defied his own expectations before noting that “a frightened dog barks louder.”
“I believe that North Korea has sought to ‘deter by bluster’ or ‘coerce by bluster’ for years,” Bennett said, adding that Pyongyang’s rhetoric has largely been threats that they “lacked a will to execute.”
“But they have to worry that President Trump may have that will … his efforts to reach out to US conservatives also suggests a degree of desperation,” he added.
The internal pressure to maintain his “god-like” image could also be a contributing factor to Kim’s attempts to better understand Trump’s intentions, according to Bennett.
“Yes, Kim appears really worried about what Trump might do. But I suspect he is even more worried about how what Trump says and does will undercut Kim internally, especially with the North Korean elites,” he said.
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Illnesses at US Embassy in Havana Prompt Evacuation of More Diplomats
September 30, 2017 by admin
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While there is no evidence so far that tourists or hotel employees have been affected, the government’s travel warning could cripple Cuba’s burgeoning tourism industry if tour operators, hotel and cruise line companies or their insurers decide that their employees and customers could be at risk.
“Right now, the most important constituency of determining the impact of this is not members of Congress or pundits; it’s the insurance companies,” said John Kavulich, the president of the U.S.-Cuba Trade and Economic Council. “If the carriers withdraw coverage because of this warning, then everything could shut down there almost overnight.”
The timing of Mr. Tillerson’s decision and its potential fallout promises to write yet another chapter in an extraordinary history between the two countries that has included the explosion of the American battleship Maine in Havana Harbor in 1898, the Bay of Pigs in 1961 and the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962.
Then, in 2014, after decades of frosty relations, constant sniping and severed diplomatic relations, President Barack Obama reversed course and reached an agreement with President Raúl Castro of Cuba to reopen embassies in the countries’ respective capitals and begin to encourage nascent tourism and business ties.
But the rapprochement was deeply unpopular among a powerful segment of Cuban émigrés in Florida, and Mr. Trump in his campaign vowed to reverse what he called a “terrible and misguided deal.” Once in office, Mr. Trump did undo crucial pieces of Mr. Obama’s policy, but kept in place others that were broadly popular, such as allowing direct flights and cruises between the United States and Cuba, and rules making it easier for American companies to do business in Cuba.
On Capitol Hill, a debate began immediately over whether Mr. Tillerson acted too quickly or not quickly enough. He has known since a few days after his confirmation on Feb. 1 that diplomats in Havana were becoming ill, but took until Friday to reduce the diplomatic and Marine Corps contingent there to 27.
Senator Marco Rubio, Republican of Florida, who fiercely opposed Mr. Obama’s decision to improve ties with Cuba, questioned the decision not to punish Cuba more forcefully.
So Castro regime allows attacks on Americans forcing us to drawdown to keep them safe but he gets to keep about same # of people here? 2/2
—
Marco Rubio (@marcorubio)
Sept. 29, 2017
Senator Patrick J. Leahy, Democrat of Vermont, said punitive measures would only play into the hands of the attackers. “Whoever is doing this obviously is trying to disrupt the normalization process between the United States and Cuba,” Mr. Leahy said. “Someone or some government is trying to reverse that process.”
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A host of Latin American scholars denounced the State Department’s travel advisory as a cynical ploy to undo the last vestiges of the Obama administration’s rapprochement with Cuba. “The fact remains that Cuba is the safest place in Latin America for foreigners to visit,” said Eric Zolov, a Cuban expert at Stony Brook University. “Crime is exceptionally low and tourism is coveted by the government.”
President Trump was unapologetic about the action on Friday, saying that “some very bad things happened in Cuba.”
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But one reason Mr. Tillerson decided to keep the embassy open is a growing belief among American officials that the Cuban government was probably not responsible for them.
A former senior American official said that there was information that the Cubans were rattled by what had happened and were desperate to find the cause. The fact that a Canadian diplomat was also affected has deepened the mystery. Relations between Canada and Cuba have long been warm.
The former senior official said that F.B.I. agents who had been allowed entry to Cuba had visited the homes of the American diplomats and had not been able to detect anything. The F.B.I. has also reviewed security footage of the homes and found nothing suspicious, and the agency has been unable to duplicate the effects the diplomats have experienced in a lab.
That the Cubans offered to let the F.B.I. go to Havana and investigate was a rare level of openness and was seen as yet another indicator that the Cubans themselves have been shaken by the episode.
Of the 21 people who have become ill, 17 were government employees and four were spouses. Three of the spouses worked at the embassy. For some, the injuries appear permanent, with symptoms including hearing loss, dizziness, tinnitus, balance and visual problems, headache, fatigue, cognitive issues and difficulty sleeping. But despite an intensive investigation by the F.B.I., the cause and perpetrators of the attacks remain a mystery.
Some of those affected reported hearing odd sounds in particular rooms of their homes, leading some experts to speculate that some kind of sonic weapon or faulty surveillance device may have been at fault.
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“Just looking at the symptoms, it sounds like they’ve all had traumatic brain injuries like a concussion or a series of minor head injuries even though we know they haven’t,” said Dr. Martin Gizzi, a neurologist in Portland, Ore., who is a fellow of the American Academy of Neurology.
Dr. Gizzi said neither ultrasonic nor subsonic waves have been known to produce such injuries surreptitiously. Among the other possibilities are a virus, poison or radiation, he said.
Friday’s announcement came three days after Mr. Tillerson met with Bruno Rodríguez, Cuba’s foreign minister, in Washington, in a meeting that the Cuban government requested. That meeting did not convince Mr. Tillerson that the Cubans could guarantee the safety of the remaining American employees in Havana, prompting the decision to pull much of the embassy staff.
The remaining staff will carry out only emergency services, such as helping American citizens in need. Routine visa functions for Cuban citizens will no longer be conducted in Havana. Officials may soon direct Cubans seeking to travel to the United States to apply for visas at embassies or consulates in other countries.
American officials will continue to meet with their Cuban counterparts — but not in Cuba — until the cause of the attacks is uncovered, officials said.
In August, Heather Nauert, the State Department’s spokeswoman, said that the department was confident that the attacks were no longer occurring. But on Friday, officials conceded that the remaining 27 personnel in Havana were still at risk.
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