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In Zimbabwe, an anxious wait to see if Mugabe will return after military takeover

November 16, 2017 by  
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After ruling Zimbabwe for nearly four decades, leading the country from the triumph of its independence struggle to economic collapse, the world’s oldest head of state became a prisoner of the military he once commanded.

Robert Mugabe, 93, was detained along with his wife, according to a military announcement Wednesday. The move appears to end one of Africa’s most controversial political dynasties while raising questions about what might come next — military rule, a transitional government or a settlement that would allow Mugabe to return to power.

No matter what happens, this appears to be a watershed moment for Zimbabwe and southern Africa, which have suffered from the tumult of Mugabe’s reign, even as his hold on power sometimes seemed unshakable.

Zimbabweans awoke early Wednesday to a televised announcement from an army general promising that there was “not a military takeover,” although Mugabe had been detained and armored vehicles were rolling into Harare, the capital.

Despite the assurances, the events bore all the signs of a coup. Troops were stationed around the city. The army took over the television station. The army spokesman, Maj. Gen. Sibusiso Moyo, said in his televised statement that “criminals” in Mugabe’s regime were being targeted. Although there was little indication of violence by Wednesday night, many residents of the capital remained paralyzed — unsure whether they should celebrate Mugabe’s ouster or prepare themselves for a new era of undemocratic rule.

The commander of Zimbab­we’s military forces, Gen. Constantino Chiwenga, made the move as a struggle over who will succeed the country’s elderly leader came to a head.

Mugabe led the country to independence from Britain in 1980, fighting in a guerrilla war that put an end to white minority rule. Upon becoming president, he galvanized the population with fiery speeches promising that “Zimbabwe will never be a colony again.”

But that mantra lost much of its power in recent years, as Mugabe’s presidency was marred by allegations of corruption, nepotism and repression. Zimbabwe went from being one of Africa’s wealthiest nations to a country reeling under one of the highest inflation rates in modern history, its currency so devalued that it had to print a $100 billion note.

Mugabe recently purged some key officials from the ruling party, ZANU-PF, paving the way for his 52-year-old spouse, Grace, to succeed him. Many see that move as a major miscalculation, alienating Mugabe from the civilians and military leaders on whom he had long depended.

As of Wednesday night, the fate of Mugabe and his wife was unclear. Neither had released a statement.

South African President Jacob Zuma, who announced that he was sending high-level envoys to Harare, said that he had spoken to Mugabe and that he is “fine” — albeit confined to his home.

“Mugabe and his family are safe and sound, and their security is guaranteed,” Moyo, the Zimbab­wean general, said in the televised statement. An armored vehicle blocked the road in front of Mugabe’s offices as soldiers milled around.

“We are only targeting criminals around him who are committing crimes that are causing social and economic suffering,” Moyo continued.

The statement was played over and over on state television and radio, but no more details were provided. Rumors spread that a number of cabinet ministers had been arrested. At least one, Finance Minister Ignatius Chombo, was taken from his home by soldiers, according to an aide.

But the military remained tight-lipped about Mugabe, his wife and other members of Mugabe’s inner circle.

“We are not saying these names now,” said Overson Mugwisi, a spokesman for the Zimbabwe Defense Forces.

World leaders were monitoring the situation. The British foreign secretary, Boris Johnson, said that “nobody wants simply to see the transition from one unelected tyrant to a next.”

The U.S. State Department refrained from calling the action a coup but said Washington was “concerned by recent actions taken by Zimbabwe’s military forces” and called on authorities to exercise restraint.

For decades, Mugabe had a reputation as an unwavering critic of many Western policies and international institutions. His supporters hailed him for actions such as the seizure of white-owned farms. Although the farms were meant to be given to black families, many ended up in the hands of Mugabe’s close associates, and within years a large number had fallen fallow because their new owners had no background or interest in farming.

On the streets of Harare, the news of the military takeover was greeted with cautious optimism by many.

“We are happy that we are going to have another leader,” said a man in Harare’s Chitungwiza neighborhood who called himself Yemurai. “Even if it’s going to be another dictator, we accept a new one. Look, we are jobless, hungry and poverty-stricken. All we want is something different.” Like most people interviewed, he spoke on the condition that his full name not be used.

But some people worried that the military intervention could lead to violence.

“This is a disaster,” said Baxon, a man from the Glen View area. “Solving one problem by creating another. We don’t want another war, but it seems we are headed that way. We have heard there are people in the army not in agreement with what Chiwenga did.”

But there were mounting signs that Mugabe’s former allies were quickly turning against him.

Victor Matemadanda, secretary general of the powerful War Veterans Association, thanked Chiwenga for intervening and said Mugabe should be dismissed.

“We will be recalling President Robert Mugabe as the first secretary of the party and the head of state for the crimes he has committed,” Matemadanda said in a news conference.

In Harare’s central business district, residents said all seemed normal.

Across the country, Zimbabweans exchanged frantic text messages asking for updates, debating whether Mugabe had finally been toppled.

Political analyst Mike Mavura said it was important for the ­military to say this was not a coup for reasons of international legitimacy.

“We are not in the 1960s and 1970s anymore, when coups in Africa were left, right and center — I think they are trying very hard to appear progressive,” he said. “However, of interest to democracy, the elections scheduled for next year, will they take place?”

Zimbabwe’s political crisis reached a boiling point last week with Mugabe’s dismissal of Vice President Emmerson Mnangagwa, clearing the way for Mugabe’s wife to succeed the leader.

Mugabe told supporters he had dismissed Mnangagwa for disloyalty and disrespect, as well as using witchcraft to take power. Mnangagwa later fled to South Africa.

The move exacerbated divisions in the ZANU-PF party, where the youth faction is firmly on Grace Mugabe’s side, while many older veterans of the struggle against white rule look to Mnangagwa. As a former defense minister, Mnangagwa has strong support in the military.

Political commentator Maxwell Saungweme said by phone that the military will probably try to pressure Mugabe to step down in favor of Mnangagwa as acting president.

“But this plan may not pan out, as Mugabe might resist this. So the whole thing may be messy,” he warned.

Didymus Mutasa, a former presidential affairs minister who was fired by Mugabe in 2014, said he hoped that the military takeover would “help us start on a democratic process.”

Zimbabwe was once a breadbasket for the region, but its economy and especially the agricultural sector have suffered in recent years.

Meanwhile, Mugabe was seen as being increasingly under the influence of his wife, who is also known as “Gucci Grace” for the rumored extravagance of her foreign shopping trips. The country’s per-capita gross domestic product is $1,008, according to the World Bank.

In recent weeks, there have been signs of an increased sensitivity to criticism of the government. Four people were detained for booing Grace Mugabe at a rally, and an American woman was arrested for allegedly tweeting insulting comments about Mugabe.

Schemm reported from Addis Ababa, Ethi­o­pia. Brian Murphy in Washington contributed to this report.

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Tax Bill Thrown Into Uncertainty as First GOP Senator Comes Out Against It

November 16, 2017 by  
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“I’m still working with folks to see if there’s some way to be assured as it relates to the deficit issue that we’re not going to create harm,” Mr. Corker said. “There’s other senators who themselves want to ensure that we’re doing something to strengthen our country relative to the deficits.”

He added, “I’m not a yes, I’m not a no.”

With the House expected to pass its tax legislation, the fate of the overhaul fell into the hands of Republican senators, who grappled with the dangerous political prospects of passing a bill that critics said could undermine the health care system and favored companies over the middle class. The Senate has played the spoiler before: The House passed a repeal of the Affordable Care Act in May, only to see it fail in the Senate twice.

Republican and Democratic senators clashed on Wednesday over changes the Republicans had made to their ambitious tax legislation late Tuesday night, including adding a provision to repeal the Affordable Care Act’s requirement that most people have health coverage or pay a penalty. Republicans also made the tax cuts for individuals temporary, to comply with Senate procedural rules requiring that the tax plan not add to the deficit after a decade.

Senate Republicans, eager for a major legislative achievement after the Affordable Care Act debacle, have generally been enthusiastic about the tax overhaul. But given the party’s slim 52-to-48 majority in the Senate, the reluctance of even a handful of Republican senators has left open the possibility that the tax bill will be further changed or face failure.

Beyond Mr. Johnson, the support of several other Republican senators was not assured, including the three who killed the party’s effort to repeal the health law this summer: Ms. Collins, John McCain of Arizona and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska.

“I want to see the whole package before I make a decision,” Mr. McCain said.

On Wednesday, Ms. Collins expressed concern that middle-income consumers could see their tax cut erased by an increase in health insurance premiums caused by the repeal of the requirement that most people have insurance, known as the individual mandate.

Other Republican senators, such as Mr. Corker and Jeff Flake of Arizona, are concerned about the national debt, which topped $20 trillion even before consideration of a tax plan that could add an additional $1.5 trillion over a decade.

Every Tax Cut and Tax Increase in the House G.O.P. Bill and What It Would Cost

The dozens of changes in the legislation would add more than $1.4 trillion to the federal debt over 10 years.


As the Senate Finance Committee continued its formal drafting of the bill, Democrats attacked Republicans for inserting the repeal of the individual mandate and for imposing a 2025 expiration date for individual tax cuts, even as they would make the corporate tax cut permanent.

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“This bill seems to get worse by the hour,” said Senator Ron Wyden of Oregon, the top Democrat on the Senate Finance Committee. “This is not just another garden variety attack on the Affordable Care Act; this is repeal of that law.”

Repealing the health law’s individual mandate would allow Republicans to save more than $300 billion over 10 years, giving them more room to cut taxes. According to the Congressional Budget Office, it would also lead to a reduction of 13 million in the number of people with health coverage, and average health insurance premiums on the individual market would rise by about 10 percent.

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Senator Orrin G. Hatch of Utah, the chairman of the Finance Committee, played down the move to make the individual tax cuts temporary, not mentioning that change in an opening statement during “markup” of the bill on Wednesday in which he defended his party’s right to undo the mandate. He later suggested that Republicans would be unlikely to resist if Democrats wanted to make those cuts permanent.

Mr. Hatch and Mr. Wyden raised their voices and spoke over each other as they clashed over the injection of health care into the tax debate, with Mr. Hatch at one point demanding that his leadership of the committee be respected.

“Let me be in control of this committee, not you,” Mr. Hatch said.

Another Senate panel, the Energy and Natural Resources Committee, voted on Wednesday to approve legislation that would open the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge in Alaska to oil and gas drilling — an opening long sought by Republicans but ardently opposed by Democrats and environmentalists.

That legislation is to be merged with the tax bill, which Republicans are planning to pass using special procedures that protect against a Democratic filibuster in the Senate. Under that strategy, the drilling measure would share the protection from a filibuster.

Allowing drilling in the wildlife refuge, known as ANWR, is a cherished goal of the energy committee’s chairwoman, Ms. Murkowski. Given her vote this summer against repealing the Affordable Care Act, Ms. Murkowski is once again a closely watched figure as the Senate plunges back into a debate over health care. But this time, with the prospect of opening the wildlife refuge to drilling, Ms. Murkowski has a major reason to vote yes.

“My whole focus this week, you’re going to be shocked to know, has been ANWR,” she told reporters on Wednesday, brushing aside a question about the individual mandate.

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In the House, the biggest threat comes from Republicans in high-tax states like New York and New Jersey, who have fought to preserve the deduction for state and local taxes. The House bill allows the deduction of up to $10,000 in property taxes, but that provision has not been enough to win over a number of House Republicans.

If all House members vote and every Democrat opposes the bill, Republican leaders can afford to lose no more than 22 of their members for it to pass.

At least five Republicans from New York and three from New Jersey have come out against the House bill. Republican leaders could also lose votes from at least a few of their members from California, another high-tax state.

“It’s conceivable they could come up with some last-minute numbers that don’t look so bad,” said Representative Dana Rohrabacher, Republican of California. “But I did not go to my constituents and ask them to vote for me in order to increase their tax load, and the bill dramatically increases the tax load on a big chunk of my constituency.”

Nicholas Fandos contributed reporting.


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