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Exclusive: Democrats lose ground with millennials

May 1, 2018 by  
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MANCHESTER, N.H. (Reuters) – Enthusiasm for the Democratic Party is waning among millennials as its candidates head into the crucial midterm congressional elections, according to the Reuters/Ipsos national opinion poll.

The online survey of more than 16,000 registered voters ages 18 to 34 shows their support for Democrats over Republicans for Congress slipped by about 9 percentage points over the past two years, to 46 percent overall. And they increasingly say the Republican Party is a better steward of the economy.

Although nearly two of three young voters polled said they do not like Republican President Donald Trump, their distaste for him does not necessarily extend to all Republicans or translate directly into votes for Democratic congressional candidates.

That presents a potential problem for Democrats who have come to count on millennials as a core constituency – and will need all the loyalty they can get to achieve a net gain of 23 seats to capture control of the U.S. House of Representatives in November.

Young voters represent an opportunity and a risk for both parties, said Donald Green, a political science professor at Columbia University in New York City.

“They’re not as wedded to one party,” Green said. “They’re easier to convince than, say, your 50- or 60-year-olds who don’t really change their minds very often.”

Terry Hood, 34, an African-American who works at a Dollar General store in Baton Rouge, Louisiana and took this year’s poll, said he voted for Democrat Hillary Clinton in the 2016 presidential election.

But he will consider a Republican for Congress because he believes the party is making it easier to find jobs and he applauds the recent Republican-led tax cut.

“It sounds strange to me to say this about the Republicans, but they’re helping with even the small things,” Hood said in a phone interview. “They’re taking less taxes out of my paycheck. I notice that.”

The Reuters/Ipsos poll surveyed young voters during the first three months of this year and the same period in 2016.

Only 28 percent of those polled expressed overt support for Republicans in the 2018 poll – about the same percentage as two years earlier.

But that does not mean the rest will turn out to back Democrats, the survey showed. A growing share of voters between ages 18 and 34 years old said they were undecided, would support a third-party candidate or not vote at all.

The shift away from Democrats was more pronounced among white millennials – who accounted for two-thirds of all votes cast in that age group in 2016.

Two years ago, young white people favored Democrats over Republicans for Congress by a margin of 47 to 33 percent; that gap vanished by this year, with 39 percent supporting each party.

The shift was especially dramatic among young white men, who two years ago favored Democrats but now say they favor Republicans over Democrats by a margin of 46 to 37 percent, the Reuters/Ipsos poll showed.

Ashley Reed, a white single mother of three in New Hampshire, said a teenage fascination with Democrat Barack Obama led her to support his presidency in 2008. But her politics evolved with her personal life.

Reed, now 28, grew more supportive of gun rights, for instance, while married to her now ex-husband, a U.S. Navy technician. She lost faith in social welfare programs she came to believe were misused. She opposed abortion after having children.

Reed plans to vote for a Republican for Congress this year.

“As I got older, I felt that I could be my own voice,” she said last month in Concord, New Hampshire.

Mindi Messmer, Democratic candidate for the U.S. House of Representatives in New Hampshire’s First Congressional District, speaks to a UNH College Democrats meeting at the University of New Hampshire in Durham, New Hampshire, U.S., March 28, 2018. Picture taken March 28, 2018. REUTERS/Brian Snyder

A SWING DISTRICT

Down the road from where Reed lives lies New Hampshire’s 1st Congressional District, a hiker’s paradise of evergreen thickets and snow-capped lakes where young white voters make up about a quarter of the electorate, compared to 21 percent nationally.

The district’s House seat has changed parties five times in seven election cycles and is up for grabs this year after the Democratic incumbent declined to seek re-election.

New Hampshire’s Democrats have an early edge in voter enthusiasm after a string of victories in races for state legislative seats, said Christopher Galdieri, a politics professor at Saint Anselm College in Manchester.

At a campaign event at the University of New Hampshire in Durham, Mindi Messmer, one of eight Democrats running in the primary election, touted her work as an environmental crusader. But students in the crowd also raised many other issues, notably the local economy.

“People come to school here, and then they move away because they can’t get jobs,” said Acadia Spear, 18, of Portsmouth.

Spear said she would likely vote for a Democrat, but her peers nationally are increasingly looking to Republicans for economic leadership, according to the Reuters/Ipsos poll.

Millennials are almost evenly split this year over the question of which party has a better plan for the economy, with 34 percent picking the Democrats and 32 percent choosing Republicans. That’s a shift from two years ago, when they said Democrats had the better plan by a 12-point margin.

In Manchester, the biggest city in New Hampshire’s 1st District, tattoo artist Ashley Matthias, 31, said she has not decided how she will vote but will support anyone who will make her health insurance more affordable.

As she drilled an eagle in black ink across a client’s shoulder blades, Matthias explained that it is cheaper to pay for her doctor’s visits out-of-pocket than to buy insurance through the government-run Obamacare exchange. 

“You just hope nothing happens to you,” she said.

BATTLE FOR THE YOUTH VOTE

After the bruising loss in the presidential election of 2016, the Democratic Party learned it needed to reach young voters on their turf, including on social media and at college campuses, said Elizabeth Renda, who specializes in reaching young voters for the Democratic National Committee.

“Instead of having real conversations with them, we settled for TV ads,” Renda said of the 2016 failure.

Earlier this year, the DNC launched its “IWillVote” initiative, aimed in part at registering millennials to vote. The party also will run ads via social media and text, and it plans to send buses to college campuses on election day to bring students to the polls.

The Democratic National Committee declined to comment on the Reuters poll. Republican National Committee spokeswoman Cassie Smedile said the poll indicates that young voters “like what they’ve seen” from the party in power.

The Republican committee plans to target young voters in part through a pilot program to get out the vote at six college campuses, Smedile said.

In New Hampshire, Eddie Edwards, one of two Republicans running for Congress in the 1st District, said he pitches millennials on ways the government should help college graduates pay off their student loans. He also argues that public secondary schools must better prepare students to find jobs without attending college.

“This is a generation that has much more access to information than others,” he said. “Unless you’re addressing those issues that are important to them, it’s hard to get them involved.”

The Reuters/Ipsos poll was conducted online in English throughout the United States. It gathered about 65,000 responses in all during the first three months of 2018 and 2016, including 16,000 registered voters between the ages of 18 and 34 and nearly 11,000 registered white millennial voters.

Slideshow (25 Images)

The poll has a credibility interval of 1 percentage point, meaning that results may vary by about 1 percentage point in either direction.

For graphic on Democrats losing millenial voters, click: tmsnrt.rs/2I1YafW

Reporting by Chris Kahn; Additional reporting by Grant Smith in New York; Editing by Colleen Jenkins and Brian Thevenot

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At end of migrant caravan on US border, families fear what comes next

May 1, 2018 by  
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Central American migrants traveling in the caravan that has prompted angry tweets from President Trump arrived at a border crossing near San Diego on Sunday afternoon, depleted in number but defiant about their right to request asylum.

Wearing white armbands to identify themselves, the first few dozen people, mostly women and children, tried to come through the San Ysidro port of entry in the late afternoon, at the end of an expedition that started more than a month ago and 2,500 miles south of here. But as the sun set in Tijuana, none from the group had been allowed on the U.S. side or processed by border officials, according to organizers accompanying the migrants.

If they eventually succeed in entering U.S. custody, the migrants will be at the beginning of a perhaps longer and more complicated journey through the immigration court system, where the odds will be stacked against them.

Trump has made this caravan a symbol of a porous border and lax immigration laws. He has used it as justification to deploy National Guard troops, and his comments about it have further strained U.S. relations with Mexico.

And yet, many of these migrants are likely to eventually enter the United States, at least temporarily, as the law allows, so that their claims of fear and persecution in their home countries can be heard before a court.

U.S. Customs and Border ­Protection Commissioner Kevin McAleenan warned in a statement that the San Ysidro point of entry had “reached capacity” and that the migrants “may need to wait in Mexico as CBP officers work to process those already within our facilities.”


At a gathering here on Sunday afternoon before walking to the port of entry, caravan organizers and migrant advocates called on the Trump administration to treat the people humanely and according to the law. Those who weren’t processed by U.S. authorities would wait and could use the time in Tijuana to gather evidence to support their asylum claims, said Irineo Mujica, the director of Pueblo Sin Fronteras, a migrant rights group that organized the caravan.

“We hope the United States will take them in,” Mujica said. “If not, we’ve already waited through a month of torture with Donald Trump. I think we can wait a couple more.”

Leo Olsen, one of the caravan organizers, said as he waited with 30 of the asylum seekers near U.S. border officials: “We’re shocked that the port of entry would be at such capacity to not be able to receive any asylum seekers. We are not planning on moving until we can talk further about the situation.”

In past years, such caravans have called attention to the plight of migrants on a dangerous journey, but they often traveled in obscurity. This year, conservative media in the United States seized on the caravan as a sign of out-of-control immigration, and Trump fanned the flames with tweets.

As members of the group reached the border, U.S. officials suggested that they should stay in Mexico and warned them — and the activists helping them — against making false immigration claims, saying that they would be prosecuted if they did.

“To anyone that is associated with this caravan, Think Before You Act,” Rodney S. Scott, chief patrol agent in San Diego for the U.S. Border Patrol, said in a statement. “If anyone has encouraged you to illegally enter the United States, or make any false statements to U.S. government officials, they are giving you bad advice and they are placing you and your family at risk.”

The caravan started out with more than 1,500 people, but the numbers dwindled to about 200 as the group made its way north by foot, bus and train. Some have dispersed, and others chose to stay in Mexico.

About 300 people remained in the northern Mexican city of Hermosillo to apply for humanitarian visas, said Mujica, the caravan organizer. But he said the Mexican government has yet to issue the visas.

“We are asking the Mexican government to come through with their promises. They promised close to 1,000 visas, and of those, not a single one has been issued,” Mujica said.

The group gathered alongside the beach in Tijuana early Sunday morning at a park where the border fence juts into the Pacific Ocean. The day started with marriages of four members of the caravan — a way to underscore family unity before entering the U.S. immigration system. Then there were protests alongside people who marched in solidarity from Los Angeles. They gathered on both sides of the rusted metal bars that divide the United States and Mexico and shouted into megaphones to be heard over the crashing waves.

“I’m feeling happy, but nervous at the same time. What if they don’t give us asylum and send us back to our country?” said Reina Carolina García Marin, 16, who said she was fleeing San Pedro Sula, Honduras, after a gang member raped her high school friend — and then informed her that she was next on the gang’s list.

Some migrants hesitated on the border as they learned about conditions in U.S. detention centers. The approximately 40 lawyers and legal assistants who facilitated group workshops gave them individual advice about their asylum cases, while informing them that they probably would be held initially in a frigid room called the hielera — Spanish for icebox — and that adults could be detained for several months, or even years. Families were likely to be separated into different detention centers. Single men can generally expect to spend longer in detention.

Miguel Angel Lopez, 29, who had fled from Olocuitla, El Salvador, because gang members sought to recruit him, was discouraged by his prospects.

“It seems impossible to get asylum, because you could have to wait for up to a year, and to pay up to $20,000,” he said.

U.S. law generally allows foreigners to apply for asylum, but the vast majority of Central Americans who apply are not approved. Migrants who pass the initial “credible fear” screening often get assigned a date in immigration court and then are released after a few days in custody. U.S. officials say many migrants skip their court dates and try to live illegally in the United States.

Trump has vowed to end what he calls President Barack Obama’s “catch and release” immigration policies, but recent figures show that the Trump administration has released about 100,000 people at the U.S.-Mexico border — many with ankle monitors to track them until their court dates.

“There’s a luck-of-the-draw aspect based on what jurisdiction they end up in, and what jurisdiction they end up in is basically a lottery based on what beds are available,” said Alexandra Bachan, an immigration lawyer based in Oakland.

By about 3:30 p.m., the group neared the border crossing, chanting: “Stop Donald Trump and his politics of fear.”

The group stalled outside the port of entry as they debated whether to enter together or go in small groups. Rodulfo Figueroa, a representative from Mexico’s immigration agency, suggested a small group, of about 20 people, should go first “to see the response of the U.S. authorities.”

“All 200 cannot be there at once,” he added. “The problem isn’t us — it’s the U.S. authorities.”

Maria Magdalena Iraeta Martínez, 47, of El Salvador, said she was planning to “cross with my kids to a place where I can finally be free, without threats.”

Five years ago, Martínez said, her family had been encircled in their home by armed members of the MS-13 gang. The gang members had attempted to recruit her son, William Rafael Carranza Martínez, now 25, but he had refused to join. Armed men entered the house early in the morning, escorted all of the extended family outside and threw them to the ground at gunpoint, she said.

The family fled to Guatemala and lived for several years in southern Mexico but continued to receive gang threats.

At the front of the caravan, Carranza pushed his sister’s wheelchair up the ramp leading to the port of entry. His mother, Iraeta Martínez, followed behind, crying.

“I ask God and the government to give me asylum,” she said.

Partlow reported from Mexico City.

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