Saudi Arabia is at war with itself
November 14, 2017 by admin
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Saudi
Arabian Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman attends a summit
of Arab and Latin American leaders in Riyadh, Saudi
Arabia.
AP/Hasan
Jamali
-
More than a dozen princes and high-level officials have
been arrested as the result of a power struggle. -
The power struggle could destabilize Saudi Arabia,
which was already weakening.
Forget Yemen, Syria and Lebanon, just a few of the countries in
which Saudi Arabia is fighting a proxy war with Iran, its
long-time enemy. The Saudi royal family now appears to be at war
with itself. Regardless of who wins, the conflict could
destabilize Saudi Arabia, which was already weakening anyway.
Palace Intrigue
What’s happening in the country is the definition of palace
intrigue. The king, Salman bin Abdul-Aziz, took the throne in
January 2015 following the death of his half brother, Abdullah, a
son of the nation’s founder who had ruled the country for two
decades. It was a relatively straightforward succession. It’s now
common knowledge that it took a behind-the-scenes power struggle
for King Salman to crown his son, Mohammed bin Salman, a prince
and name him his chosen successor. But on Nov. 4, the power
struggle became brazenly public. That day, Salman and his son had
more than a dozen princes and former high-level officials
arrested, including a world-famous billionaire. The reason for
their detention is simple: Salman is trying to remove obstacles
that could prevent Mohammed bin Salman from succeeding him.
King Salman is the first monarch in the history of the modern
kingdom to buck this particular tradition. Usually, a successor
is chosen by consensus among the sons of the founder of the
kingdom. But now that the second generation is nearly all dead,
and now that there are too many third-generation princes to
convene, it has become more difficult to choose who will become
the next king.
He has bucked other traditions too. Salman has strengthened his
son’s claim by bestowing on him sweeping powers over security and
economic affairs. Mohammed bin Salman is the defense minister,
the head of a strategic economic council, controller of Saudi
Aramco and, after Nov. 4, the chief of an anti-corruption agency.
And Salman did all this by removing from power his half brother
and his nephew, both of whom were crown princes. He has also
sidelined powerful members of the clerical and tribal
establishments.
Some rumors suggest that the purges were made in response to a
plot against Mohammed bin Salman. It’s unclear if that is
actually the case. But whether the rumors are true or whether the
arrests were pre-emptive, the outcome is the same: There are
fewer threats to a Mohammed bin Salman reign. One of the princes
arrested, Mitab bin Abdullah, for example, was the minister of
the National Guard – the parallel military force to the regular
armed forces under the Ministry of Defense. He and Mohammed bin
Salman shared responsibility for Saudi Arabia’s armed forces.
Until Nov. 4, that is.
Mitab’s brother, Turki bin Abdullah, was also arrested. (He was
removed from his post as governor of Riyadh in 2015, the year
King Salman took the throne.) Perhaps the most famous target was
Prince Alwaleed bin Talal. He is an entrepreneur who is mostly
disinterested in politics, but his father is a known liberal who
opposed Salman as king and now opposes Mohammed bin Salman as his
successor.
Facing the Facts
Arresting these individuals accomplishes two things. First, it
guarantees their capitulation to Mohammed bin Salman. Second, it
gives the Salman faction more mileage out of the anti-corruption
drive. Between that and their calls for a more moderate version
of Islam, the king and his son are moving away from the
traditional sources of support (clerics and tribal
establishments) and toward new ones: popular appeal among the
country’s youth, which makes up about two-thirds of the
population. The old guard is an obstacle for the reforms needed
to move the kingdom beyond its current impasse – put simply:
depending almost solely on oil revenue – and thus a threat for
the leadership. They are using populism to inoculate themselves
from the potential consequences of their power grab.
In the process, though, they are inadvertently laying the
foundations for the next crisis. Relying on popular support means
they will be forced to enact more reforms than they actually want
to – or are even capable of. Despots who try to be populists
usually end up being neither and, in their failure, lose power.
It is too early to tell what will be the outcome of the power
struggle. Whoever comes out on top will be unable to ignore the
fact: that Saudi Arabia is a country in decline, largely because
of low oil prices but also because of the general disarray in the
Middle East. In this context, then, the events of Nov. 4 are more
than petty power grabs – they are attempts to make the country
pliable enough to accept necessary reform at a time of increasing
regional chaos.
The kingdom cannot both change its nature and hope to meet the
external challenges at the same time. It has to consolidate at
home before it can act effectively beyond its borders. But this
sequence of priorities is not a luxury that the Saudis enjoy.
Their historical enemies the Iranians are gaining ground, and
they cannot simply focus on domestic politics.
Take, for example, another thing that happened Nov. 4. The leader
of Riyadh’s main proxy in Lebanon, Prime Minister Saad Hariri,
resigned after criticizing Iranian interference in his country.
By having Hariri pull out of the coalition government in Lebanon,
the Saudis hope to weaken Iran’s premier proxy, Hezbollah, which
benefits from the coalition government in Beirut. But it’s a weak
and probably ineffective move. Now that the Islamic State is
weakened, Iran has the advantage in Iraq and Syria.
Riyadh’s inability to deal with external threats, if anything,
will only intensify its domestic ones. Even though the king and
his son have the upper hand, an inability to effectively counter
the Iranian threat could weaken their position at home and thus
aggravate the infighting.
Read the original article on RiskHedge. Stay informed of all things risk – sign up free at RiskHedge.com. Copyright 2017. Copyright 2017. Follow RiskHedge on Twitter.
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Menendez jurors tell judge they’re deadlocked
November 14, 2017 by admin
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Jurors are deadlocked in the federal corruption trial of Sen. Robert Menendez. | Eduardo Munoz Alvarez/Getty Images
The jury sent a note to the judge asking, ‘What do we do now?’
NEWARK — After more than two months of testimony and deliberations, the corruption case against U.S. Sen. Robert Menendez is on the verge of a mistrial.
On Monday afternoon, after deliberating for about two hours, the jury foreman sent a note to Judge William Walls stating that the panel was deadlocked on all counts against the Democratic senator and his co-defendant, Florida eye doctor Salomon Melgen.
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“As of 2 p.m., on behalf of all jurors, we cannot reach a unanimous decision on any of the charges. Is there any additional guidance? What do we do now?” stated the note, which was read aloud by Walls.
The judge then re-read some of the instructions he delivered to the jury two weeks ago on how they should reach a verdict, how it’s their duty to “consult with one another” and how “you must make a determination of whether the government has met its burden beyond a reasonable doubt as to the guilt of any defendant.”
Walls then sent the jurors home an hour early and told them to return Tuesday morning.
“I want you to cease your deliberations, go home and have a good meal and a good sleep. And I want you to come back here tomorrow to continue deliberations,” he said.
Before the jury entered the courtroom, Walls asked prosecutors and defense attorneys for advice.
Lead prosecutor Peter Koski said that since one juror had just been replaced, this jury had technically only been deliberating for a couple of hours.
“My recollection is that the jury began deliberating anew at 11 a.m. this morning [and] they had an hour lunch break. That means based upon receipt of this note, the jury would have only been deliberating a few hours,” Koski said. “Two to three hours after a nine-week trial. My recommendation is that the jury be sent back to continue deliberating.”
Menendez attorney Abbe Lowell said Walls should declare a mistrial, because despite the addition of the new juror, the panel had already spent more than three days deliberating before Monday.
“Under the circumstances and given all that’s occurred, it seems to me we should take them at their word, bring them back in, thank them for their service and declare a mistrial,” Lowell said.
Lowell also objected to Walls’ comments to the jurors, criticizing his selection of a small portion of jury instructions to re-read to them and the fact he sent them home early.
“By letting them out early with the instruction you did, it feels a little like you’re telling them that they need to reach a verdict,” Lowell said.
Walls wasn’t swayed.
“I see nothing wrong with it and if you see something wrong with it that’s your prerogative,” he said.
The jurors’ note did not come as a huge surprise. The juror who was dismissed last week, Evelyn Arroyo-Maultsby, told reporters the jury could not agree on a verdict and that she believed they would be deadlocked.
“Everybody’s not agreeing,” said Arroyo-Maultsby, who was dismissed Thursday so she could take a vacation that had been planned before the trial began on Sept. 5. “Yes, there’s trouble in the jury room.”
Menendez, a Democrat and New Jersey’s senior senator, is charged with advocating for Melgen’s business interests with top U.S. government officials in exchange for vacations in the Dominican Republic, private jet flights, hotel stays, a car service and about $750,000 in political contributions.
“Clearly, there are jurors who believe in my innocence,” Menendez told reporters outside the courthouse. “I want to thank them for that. I want to thank all the jurors for their service. But I believe no juror should be coerced. It seems to me that all of these jurors, save one, have been deliberating since [last] Monday and I would hope that at the end of the day after they finish tomorrow that those who continue to believe in my innocence will stand strong.”