‘There’s no place to hide’ — A Wall Street chief strategist breaks down the stock market’s catastrophic plunge

David Gray/Reuters

• US stocks were rocked on Monday, with the Dow Jones
  Industrial Average tumbling more than 1,100 points, its biggest
  single-day decline of all time.
• Bruce Bittles, the chief investment strategist at
  Robert W. Baird Co., attributes a big portion of the
  selling to a breakdown in the historical relationship between
  stocks and bonds.

---

You can run, but you can’t hide.

That’s the message the stock market delivered to frantic
investors on Monday as major US indexes were taken on a
roller-coaster ride that ended with the SP 500 down a whopping 3.6%.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average,
meanwhile, tumbled more than 1,100 points, its biggest-ever
single-day decline.

A simple way to look at the selloff is that the stock market was
inevitably due for a pullback after such a hot start in 2018. And
while stretched sentiment was definitely a factor, the futility
of a key investor strategy on Monday suggested something more
sinister afoot.

Put simply, buying the dip — defined as
swooping in to buy stocks when they fall to more attractive
valuations — didn’t work.

After a rough morning, the market appeared poised for a rebound
around midday, and it looked as if traders would buy on weakness.
Instead, the market succumbed to even deeper declines.

So why didn’t it work? Bruce Bittles, the chief investment
strategist at Robert W. Baird Co., says it’s because we’re
in a different environment now.

“Up until this point, when the market dipped, interest rates went
down,” he told Business Insider by phone. “The correlation
between stocks and rates has now reversed, and that’s the problem
the market faces. You can’t depend on rates going down as the
market weakens.

“There are no safe havens with valuations at this level,” he
continued. “There’s no place to hide.”

This breakdown in long-standing market
correlations was noted late last week by Vincent Deluard, a
macro strategist at INTL FCStone, who argued that long-term
Treasurys were “no longer a perfect hedge against stock market
volatility.”

At the root of this shift have been fears about rising inflation,
which investors are worried will prompt the type of monetary
tightening that make bonds more appealing to investors, relative
to stocks.

“You have a booming economy causing inflation fears and worries
that rates will ratchet up a lot from here, which would, in turn,
hurt consumers and businesses,” Bittles said. “It’s when rates
start rising rapidly that markets become particularly vulnerable,
and that’s what’s happening here.”

If there’s a silver lining to the stock market’s tough day, it’s
that traders have been increasing hedging activity,
heeding the warnings of strategists across Wall Street. Heading
into Monday’s bloodbath, traders were paying the most since the
2016 presidential election to protect against a decline in the
SP 500.

But Bittles isn’t ready to let traders off the hook. He said the
toxic combination of overconfidence and complacency led investors
down this dark path, whether they knew it or not. And, perhaps
even scarier, he doesn’t think big price swings are close to
finished.

“The complacency was very deep and widespread, and that often
leads to problems,” he said. “That big rally in January caused
investors to get excessively optimistic. This is going to be a
volatile year, all year long.”

Markets
Insider

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Trump has often taken credit for the stock market’s climb. Will he own the drops too?

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The Dow Jones industrial average plunged more than 1,100 points Monday as stocks took their worst loss in six and a half years. Two days of steep losses have erased the market’s gains from the start of this year and ended a period of record-setting calm for stocks. (Feb. 5)
AP

President Trump often takes credit for a rising stock market, but will he shoulder the blame when it takes a dive? 

The Dow Jones industrial average hit its first real rough patch during the past two trading sessions on what had been a smooth and steep climb through the first year of Trump’s administration. Monday the Dow shed 1,175 points, its largest point drop in history, wiping all of 2018′s gains.

The president has not hesitated to imply his policies are driving the bull market and the growing economy. In his State of the Union address last week, Trump touted Wall Street’s success early in his speech. 

More: Dow plunge briefly tops 1500 points as stock rout intensifies

“The stock market has smashed one record after another, gaining $8 trillion in value,” the president proudly stated. “That is great news for Americans’ 401k, retirement, pension, and college savings accounts.”

The economic data has been impressive. Since Trump was elected on Nov. 8, 2016, to its peak on Jan. 26, 2018, the Dow Jones industrial average gained a remarkable 45%. 

But traditionally, presidents have avoided patting themselves on the back for Wall Street’s highs, because they don’t wish to be anchored down by its lows. 

As Axel Merk, president of Merk Investments, said, “Let Trump take credit, but he’ll also own it should the market ever tank.”

Here’s a sampling of times Trump took credit for the market’s rise and the economy’s success. 

Our view: State of the Trump economy: It’s complicated

Other views: ‘Trumponomics’ deserves to get the credit

Feb. 5, 2018:

The Dow’s plunge didn’t stop Trump from lauding the economy Monday, although the tweet he sent did not mention the stock market. 

Jan. 24. 2018:

“Our economy is now booming and with all I am doing, will only get better,” Trump tweeted. 

Will soon be heading to Davos, Switzerland, to tell the world how great America is and is doing. Our economy is now booming and with all I am doing, will only get better…Our country is finally WINNING again!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) January 25, 2018

Jan. 23, 2018:

“You’re seeing what’s happening with the stock market. People are appreciating what we’re doing,” Trump said during an announcement of tariffs on imported solar products and washing machines. 

Jan. 20, 2018: 

Trump cited the “record stock market” as one of the many ways there has been “unprecedented success” for America since his election. 

Unprecedented success for our Country, in so many ways, since the Election. Record Stock Market, Strong on Military, Crime, Borders, ISIS, Judicial Strength Numbers, Lowest Unemployment for Women ALL, Massive Tax Cuts, end of Individual Mandate – and so much more. Big 2018!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) January 20, 2018

Jan. 16, 2018: 

“The stock market is way up again today and we’re setting a record literally all the time,” Trump said. He added that if Hillary Clinton had won the 2016 election, “the market would have gone down 50% from where it was.” 

Jan. 14, 2018: 

Trump sent a tweet quoting Fox News host Stuart Varney who said “President Trump is not getting the credit he deserves for the economy,” including the “most explosive Stock Market rally that we’ve seen in modern times.” 

“President Trump is not getting the credit he deserves for the economy. Tax Cut bonuses to more than 2,000,000 workers. Most explosive Stock Market rally that we’ve seen in modern times. 18,000 to 26,000 from Election, and grounded in profitability and growth. All Trump, not 0…

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) January 14, 2018

Jan. 5, 2018:

“Dow goes from 18,589 on November 9, 2016, to 25,075 today, for a new all-time Record,” Trump tweeted. “Jumped 1000 points in last 5 weeks, Record fastest 1000 point move in history. This is all about the Make America Great Again agenda! Jobs, Jobs, Jobs. Six trillion dollars in value created!”

Jan. 4, 2018:

In a reference to former president Barack Obama, Trump rhetorically wondered how the news media would have reacted if “‘O’ was president and had these numbers.” It would have been the “biggest story on Earth!” he concluded. 

The Fake News Media barely mentions the fact that the Stock Market just hit another New Record and that business in the U.S. is booming…but the people know! Can you imagine if “O” was president and had these numbers – would be biggest story on earth! Dow now over 25,000.

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) January 5, 2018

That tweet came just hours after another declaring, in all caps, “MAKING AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!” above a Fox Business Network graphic of the Dow’s recent milestones. 

Dec. 31, 2017: 

Trump tweeted that stocks would be 50% lower if American had elected Hillary Clinton rather than himself. 

Dec. 4, 2017:

“The stock market I think is going to have a very big day based on the massive tax cuts that we’re very much in the process of getting approved,” Trump said.

Nov. 7, 2017: 

“Stock market hit yet another all-time record high yesterday,” Trump tweeted. “There is great confidence in the moves that my Administration is making.” 

Aug. 3, 2017:

“Business is looking better than ever with business enthusiasm at record levels. Stock market at an all-time high,” Trump tweeted. “That doesn’t just happen!” 

Business is looking better than ever with business enthusiasm at record levels. Stock Market at an all-time high. That doesn’t just happen!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) August 3, 2017

July 15, 2017: 

Implying the stock market hinges on his own personal political fortunes, Trump tweeted, “Stock market hit another all-time high yesterday — despite Russia hoax story.” 

Blamed past dives on Obama

Trump was also quick to blame Obama for the market’s dips under his presidency (although notably, he did not credit his predecessor with its rises). 

“The stock market and US dollar are both plunging today,” Trump tweeted on Nov. 7, 2012. “Welcome to @BarackObama’s second term.” 

Overall, the Dow rose 149% during Obama’s presidency. 

And on Aug. 16, 2011, Trump said, “Amazing — Obama speaks, market goes DOWN — Trump tells CNBC he’s buying stock — market goes up.” 

Amazing–Obama speaks, market goes DOWN—Trump tells CNBC he’s buying stock—market goes UP — should not be that way!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) August 16, 2011

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