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BEIJING (Reuters) – China aims to expand its economy by around 6.5 percent this year, the same as in 2017, while pressing ahead with its campaign to reduce risks in the financial system, Premier Li Keqiang said Monday.
The goal was kept unchanged even though the economy grew 6.9 percent last year and exceeded the government’s target. Sources previously told Reuters that China will maintain its growth target at“around 6.5 percent”.
Economists had already expected the world’s second-largest economy to lose some momentum this year as the government deepens its push to contain a build-up in corporate debt, while a war on pollution and a cooling property market weigh on its manufacturers.
Reinforcing views that Beijing’s attention remains firmly fixed on credit risks and better quality growth, when Li unveiled the GDP target he omitted previous wording saying growth could be“higher if possible.”
In his annual work report, Li also said China has cut its budget deficit target for the first time since 2012, suggesting Beijing will be more watchful of fiscal spending while not tapping the brakes so hard that it risks a sharper slowdown.
“Policy wise, the report definitely has a tightening bias,” said Betty Wang, senior China economist at ANZ in Hong Kong.“In line with expectations, the government is pushing through their reform agenda.”
But last week’s escalation in trade tensions with the United States has jumped to the top of the list of uncertainties facing China this year.
President Donald Trump said he would impose hefty tariffs on imported steel and aluminum to protect U.S. producers, risking retaliation from major trade partners like China and sparking fears of a global trade war.
Li said China opposes protectionism and supports the settlement of trade disputes through negotiation, but will“resolutely safeguard” its legitimate rights and interest.
- China confident it can reach 2018 growth target: cabinet research head
- China cuts budget deficit ratio for first time since 2012
- China says supports negotiation to settle trade disputes
Yet, China will keep its yuan currency basically stable, Li said in remarks to the opening of the annual meeting of parliament.
He said a steady rise in import and export volumes can be expected this year, a view unchanged from a year ago. No export target was given for the third straight year.
“We can expect continued recovery of the global economy, but there are also many factors that bring instability and uncertainty,” the premier said.
“The policy changes of the major economies and their spillover effects create uncertainty; protectionism is mounting, and geopolitical risks are on the ascent,” Li said.
China’s economic and financial risks“are generally under control” but more needs to be done to resolve issues such as local government debt, Li said. He also said China will improve supervision over shadow banking, internet finance and financial holding companies, and step up risk controls at financial institutions.
DEFICIT TARGET TRIMMED
Li said China has cut its budget deficit target to 2.6 percent of GDP from 3 percent in 2017. Most analysts had expected it to be maintained or trimmed only slightly.
However, since the economy has been expanding at such a strong pace, analysts said the cut was again more symbolic of Beijing’s intention to further control debt growth.
“The actual figure is even lower than we expected…a 2.6 percent deficit would be about 2.3 trillion yuan ($363.5 billion) in absolute terms, which equals to the 2016 level,” said ANZ’s Wang.“It shows the government’s determination to control leverage in the economy.”
Heavy government infrastructure spending was a major driver behind China’s forecast-beating growth last year, but Beijing has been cracking down recently on some projects launched by local governments as it seeks to curb their spending.
Despite the lower deficit ratio, the absolute amount of the deficit is expected to remain unchanged at 2.38 trillion yuan ($376 billion), according to the finance ministry’s annual budget report.
MONETARY POLICY NEUTRAL
Li also reiterated that China will keep its monetary policy“prudent” and“neutral”, neither too loose nor too tight, and will maintain reasonably steady liquidity, he said.
While the central bank has been gingerly raising money market rates to discourage riskier lending practices, it has also kept markets well supplied with funds when there are worries of a deeper cash squeeze, and bank lending hit a fresh record last year.
Li also said he expects reasonable growth in broad M2 money supply and total social financing this year, without stating a target.
The National Development and Reform Commission, the state planner, said separately that outstanding total social financing (TSF) and M2 will grow at a similar pace this year as in 2017.
TSF grew 12 percent last year, in line with the target, but M2 growth slowed to 8.2 percent, below the goal of around 12 percent. ANZ had expected both targets to be set at 10 percent or lower this year.
“If I remember it right, it’s the first time that they don’t have a specific target in two decades. It shows authorities now prefer a tighter stance on monetary policy,” Wang said.
“Overall both monetary and fiscal policy will be tighter than last year, because the government wants to control financial leverage and overall debt levels.”
China also set its consumer inflation goal at“around 3 percent”, in line with last year, as widely expected.
Stability will be the watchword this year as President Xi Jinping pursues his vision of turning China into a“modestly prosperous” nation by 2020.
To hit the 2020 goal, the economy needs to expand at least 6.3 annually over the next three years, officials have said.
Xi also wants China to become a“strong power” on the world stage by 2050.
In the government’s 2018 budget report, defense spending saw its biggest increase in three years.
China will also continue to cut more steel and coal production, deepening its vow to make“skies blue again”, as Beijing chases quality over dizzying, polluting growth.
The ruling Communist Party last month set the stage for Xi to stay in office indefinitely, with a proposal to remove term limits from the constitution.
Key Xi ally, former top graft buster Wang Qishan, sat on the same row as Standing Committee members on the front stage of the Great Hall, despite having stepped down from the elite seven-man body which runs China in October. He is expected to become vice president, with a specific role dealing with the Trump administration.
Graphic: China’s economic trends – tmsnrt.rs/2iO9Q6a
Reporting by Kevin Yao and Sue-Ling Wong; Additional reporting by Xiaochong Zhang, Elias Glenn, Stella Qiu, Cheng Fang, Lusha Zhang, Shu Zhang, Cate Cadell, Tom Daly, Muyu Xu, Yawen Chen, Christian Shepherd, Ben Blanchard; Writing by Ryan Woo; Editing by Kim Coghill
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Italy Votes 2018
Italy’s parliamentary elections are heading for a hung parliament, with a center-right coalition set to win more seats than the anti-establishment Five Star Movement (M5S).
The election has turned Italian politics on its head, with far-right, anti-establishment and euroskeptic parties seeing strong gains.
As the official vote count continued on Monday morning, after the ballot on Sunday, it showed the Five Star Movement (M5S) would be the largest single party, but a center-right bloc — which features former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi’s Forza Italia party — would gain the most seats.
With three-quarters of the vote counted, as of 9:00 a.m. local time, the early results showed that no one party or bloc would have a majority of votes enabling it to govern alone. This signals a potentially long, drawn-out and likely fractious negotiation process in order to form a government.
Government vote data on Monday morning showed the center-right alliance with around 37 percent of the vote and anti-establishment M5S with 32 percent of the vote. The center-left bloc, including the Democratic Party (PD) which took a drubbing in the vote, was seen with 23 percent of the vote.
Euroskeptic Lega sees strong gains
An earlier exit poll indicated that the center-right alliance would gain between 248 to 268 seats in the lower house of parliament, short of the 316 needed for a majority. This center-right bloc is formed of Berlusconi’s Forza Italia and the center-right party Noi con l’Italia, as well as Lega (formerly Lega Nord) and Fratelli d’Italia.
Crucially, the vote count so far appeared to show the anti-immigration and euroskeptic party Lega, led by Matteo Salvini, with a higher share of the vote than Berlusconi’s Forza Italia. This means the party could push its right-wing agenda at a national level in a future coalition government.
Salvini said the result was “historic” for his party, one which has moved away from its roots of campaigning for an independent northern region to campaign on a national level. He tweeted his thanks to voters.
Meanwhile, Italy’s defeated PD party looks likely to end up in opposition. “If this is the result, for us it is a defeat, and we will move into the opposition,” PD lower house leader Ettore Rosato said late on Sunday, according to Reuters.
Expected hung parliament
If the final result is a hung parliament then weeks of talks between the parties could lie ahead. The Italian constitution specifies no time limit for parties to reach an agreement or call a fresh election.
M5S has not entered any coalition, although party leader Luigi Di Maio told CNBC in early February that if the party did not gain a majority to govern alone, it was willing to speak to other parties, although he did not say which ones.
Thus, potentially M5S could link up with other parties to form a coalition large enough to gain a majority in the lower house. Likewise, the center-right alliance could also renegotiate with other parties.
Kit Juckes, chief global strategist at Societe Generale, said that the Italian election had “produced slightly more uncertainty than expected” with the center-right’s success being dominated by Lega Nord’s gains.
“Pretty much all pundits rule out an alliance between Five-star and Lega Nord, expecting instead a protracted period of coalition-building led by the center-right,” he said in a research note.
Closely-watched in Europe
Sunday’s vote is being closely-watched in Europe to see if populist, anti-establishment parties such as M5S could take a governing position in the Italian parliament. Following an election campaign that featured immigration as a hot topic, the vote was seen as test of strength for far-right parties, such as Fratelli d’Italia and Lega, that have campaigned on an anti-immigration stance.
European politicians will be watching the result with concern as it could prompt the euro zone’s third-largest economy to take a more critical and oppositional stance to the European Union and the single currency. Lega leader Salvini has repeatedly called the euro a “failed experiment” and has criticized Europe.
Sunday March 4 had started positively for Europe with Social Democratic Party (SPD) members in Germany voting to approve the party joining a so-called grand coalition with Chancellor Angela Merkel’s conservative bloc, ending political instability there, just as it started in Italy.
Italy’s fragile economy was also a feature in the run-up to the election with somewhat lackluster growth and an unemployment rate of 11.1 percent dominating the debate. On Friday, fourth-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) showed the economy expanded by 0.3 percent from the previous quarter.
The country’s banking system is still mired in non-performing loans amounting to more than 300 billion euros ($368.5 billion). Italy’s debt-to-GDP ratio stood at 133 percent in 2017, according to the International Monetary Fund.
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