Gauging Google+’s chances for success

There have been many challengers to Facebook over the years, but few of them have started out as hot as Google+, the new social networking site from the web search giant that has already amassed 20 million users in less than a month. That’s still dwarfed by Facebook’s 750 million users, but media people think Google+ could mark the first significant challenge to Facebook since it surpassed MySpace as the dominant social network years ago. The site differs from Facebook in several very basic ways, the most important being that anyone can follow anyone else. On Facebook, friend requests have to be approved on both sides. Google+ also allows users to put the people they follow in different tiers, called circles, which makes social relationships easier to manage. Still, there have been some criticisms of the site, including a clunky interface and the usual security concerns that arise anytime people are asked to share their personal information online. Steve Minichini, president of interactive marketing at TargetCast tcm, talks to Media Life about Google+’s potential for growth, whether it represents a real challenge to Facebook, and what Google can do to improve it.

 

 
What differentiates Google+ from other social networks that have popped up over recent years?

 

I think that their big platform in how they’re trying to make a run at Facebook is totally legit. The word “friend” and “friending” somebody has gotten completely out of hand–there are 750 million users logging 700 billion minutes a month on Facebook.

Within that mix, Facebook has the technology to [allow users to] filter posts, but from what I hear only 5 percent of people use that technology. So your boss is there, your family members–if you’re at happy hour on Friday night and you’re on your fifth drink, you don’t want people at work seeing that. Google+ has circles that let you update to certain segments, so I think they have a good shot at putting out a good point of difference.

 

But I think they are struggling mightily with their user interface. Facebook is second nature. From what I’ve heard from people I’ve asked, there’s no real comfortable way to use Google+ right now. As a matter of fact their app, in my opinion, is much better than their web version. So I think it’s a little rocky.

 

Why do you think it has grown so quickly, and do you think that growth can be sustained over a long period?

 

They need some real positive spin.

I think just the fact that they’re Google, and the way they’ve rolled it out with invitation only at the beginning, and you felt special if you got an invite, that elevates the buzz. You can see a lot of people wanting to do it because Google had a positive position in the market.

 

But you have to look at how frequently people are logging on and updating, and from what I’m seeing it’s very infrequently right now. So a lot has to happen for people to change habits, and that’s in our space and in any [media] space.

 

Do you think users will eventually balk at how their information will be used by Google and why? Are people getting more savvy about that?

 

You know what, your questions are spot on.

Right in the registration field they clearly say, do you grant us permission to use info on non-Google web sites? They’re expert in search, almost untouchable on search. They have video, and content, they have all these end-to-end solutions, but the one area they’ve tried a couple times is to launch a social network.

 

If they get this right and get consumer preference with their 1+, which is akin to the “like” button [on Facebook], they’re getting consumer information and using it across their sites and linking that same cookie to how it uses social, video, display, etc., then from an agency perspective you can buy that — it’s an incredible story.

I don’t know if Google+ will make it though, quite honestly.

 

What mistakes that Google made in its other social networking ventures can it learn from in nurturing Google+?

 

It’s really tough to go up against the leader.

I think that Facebook has taken such a dominant share. [Google's last social networking attempt] Orkut never really made it out of beta, and [a new social network] really has to be different. That’s why I think Google+ worked on these circles. That’s the one weakness of Facebook right now. Social networks are part of your background, and Google+ can help people keep certain things close to the vest. I don’t think Orkut did that.

 

Also Google+ uses video and technology in a different way. There can be you and nine other people video chatting at the same time. Those are things that can drive up and enhance usage, but the user interface just has to be better, or else it will stall flat.

 

What potential do you see in the site from an advertising perspective?

 

Right now not too much, but I think that will come.

And I think Facebook’s ad revenues are miniscule as compared to what it could be.

I think that Google+ will monetize itself, but it will be more about what they can do with the social cookie data and mirror that data across search, Google video network and Google content network. They’re covering 80 to 90 percent of the web, so they’ll be able to see that cookie show up so many times and build an incredibly powerful profile. Google has to manage the PII [personally identifiable information] in the right way.

 

Obviously there have been many Facebook copycats over the years. Is Google+ a copycat, and what does it do better/worse than Facebook?

 

Well, the first thing I’m going to say about worse is the user interface. Facebook is easy to use, it’s quick to share, and Google+ becomes little more cumbersome.

 

Is it a copycat? I would say it is, but it’s different enough that it stands a chance. If it were too similar, it wouldn’t work. The fact that it’s a social network and within it a lot is replicated but there are points of difference, enough people will consider it. The fact that you can follow anybody without permission, that’s a difference.

 

Google has had some false starts [in social networking], but to look at what Facebook and Twitter have done, there is enough to look at what holes there are in the market.

 

Do you foresee Google+ having any impact on Facebook, positive or negative?

 

Well, I’m sure Facebook is watching closely.

 If you look at Mark Zuckerberg’s activity on Google+, he’s not messing around. I love that that’s happening, it’s fun to see how these big players examine each other.

Facebook is taking note, and they need to, this is the first real threat or consideration they’ve had. Friendster was laughable. MySpace couldn’t get out of its own way. So in my opinion this is the first real threat that stands a chance.

 

How do you think Google can improve Google+ over the coming months?

 

I think they have to really plant a seed in consumers’ minds for use. If they don’t elevate need and make it clear–think about Gmail and all of these other consumer touch points, they have to market a differentiation. It could be the video chatting, it could be placing people in circles without permission so you can follow celebrities, politicians, thought leaders–they have to do a great branding job on why it’s different.

That’s what the next three to six months should look like, and if they do they’ll elevate frequency of use and they can ramp up quickly.

 

What would qualify as success for Google+?

 

In the short term they need to reach 100 million users, and those users need to log some serious minutes. Again, 750 million users are logging 700 billion minutes a month on Facebook. You can’t even wrap your brain around that.

I think Google+ has to hit 100 million, and those users have to show some consistency of use. It could be four out of seven days a week, or whatever, just people using it and depending on it to connect with others.

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